State Population Expected to Grow Slowly During Next Two Decades; Most Growth in Windham, East Windsor, Avon, Oxford, Ellington, As Other Towns Likely to Lose Population

Connecticut’s total population is projected to increase by about 60,714 between 2015 and 2040, a growth rate of 1.7% over the 25 year period.  Simultaneously, some towns in Connecticut are projected to slowly gain population as others diminish, according to an analysis of all 169 towns by the Connecticut State Data Center at the University of Connecticut. The new projections show that multiple towns are approaching a demographic shift due to an aging population, a near net zero overall migration rate, and a relatively low, but stable, birth rate. 

Windham, East Windsor, Avon, Oxford, Ellington, Sterling, Norwich, West Haven, Rocky Hill, and Manchester are expected to experience the largest percentage of increase in overall population between 2015 to 2040.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the towns of Sherman, New Fairfield, Bridgewater, Sharon, Monroe, Cornwall, Salisbury, Old Saybrook, Washington, and Weston are projected to experience the largest percentage of decline in the overall population from 2015 to 2040, according to the analysis.

The changing demographics by age cohort for towns in Connecticut provides a more complete picture of the overall trends within towns over time. 

The comparison between are largest percentage of population gain (Windham) versus the largest percentage of population decline (Sherman) highlights the shifts in age cohorts within these towns.

Connecticut’s eight most populous towns will see a growing or stable population based on the projections from 2015 to 2040, following an overall trend for several of these towns since 2000.

While Connecticut is projected to gain 1.7%, Maine is projected to lose 0.5%, Massachusetts is projected to gain 10.4%, New Hampshire is projected to gain 6.6%, New York is projected to gain 2.2%, Rhode Island is projected to gain 1.7%, and Vermont is projected to gain 7.1% in population, according to projections produced by each of the respective states.

The Connecticut State Data Center has developed an interactive data dashboard to accompany the projections, which enables users to view demographic changes town by town with data from 1970 to 2040.  When reviewing the age cohort data, long-term trends in demographics shifts within towns, and more broadly across the state when comparing multiple towns, indicate which towns are experiencing stable or declining births by examining the under 5 age cohort, as well as visually presenting the demographic shift between age cohorts as individuals age 55 to 64 age into the 65+ age cohort.