CT Employers Anticipate Overall Employment Growth 4th Quarter, Led by Hartford Region; New Haven 1 of 3 Regions in U.S. Anticipating Employment Reduction

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Employers in the U.S. – including Connecticut -  report improved hiring plans for Q4 following the ten year low reported in Q3 according to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey of more than 8,700 U.S. employers.   

Nationwide, employers report an employment outlook of +14%, recovering 11 percentage points from Q3, yet down 6 percentage points year-over-year. Businesses now anticipate a slower hiring levels than initially expected. In April 60% expected hiring levels to return by January 2021, now down to just 25%, 11% expect hiring to return by July 2021, 5% expect longer and 21% remain uncertain. In addition, 20% of businesses plan to offer more opportunities for employees to develop new skills as the crisis accelerates demand for increasingly specific skills.

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Connecticut employers plan to hire at a slower pace in Q4 2020 with an Employment Outlook of 6%, according to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, conducted in July 2020, with Greater Hartford the strongest region in the state.

Among employers surveyed statewide, 12% plan to hire more employees from October through December. This is offset by the 6% that plan to reduce payrolls while 76% of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 6 % indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 6% statewide, less than half the national percentage.

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“Compared to Q3 2020 when the Net Employment Outlook was -3 percent, Connecticut employers have reported a stronger hiring pace,” said Betty Gooding of Manpower. “When looking at year-over-year expectations, hiring intentions have slowed down from when the Outlook was 14 percent.”

Across the country, when the four regions are compared, the strongest hiring pace is anticipated in the Midwest, where the outlook is +16%. Northeast employers expect steady workforce gains, reporting an outlook of +15%. The South and West lag somewhat behind. 

The most positive outlooks nationwide for the three months ahead are reported in Leisure and Hospitality (+22%), Transportation and Utilities (+19%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (+18%) as lockdowns lift, consumer spending improves, according to Manpower, a leading global workforce solutions company.

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For Quarter 4 2020, 97 of the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States report positive Net Employment Outlooks, including two in Connecticut – Hartford and Bridgeport.  The third Connecticut MSA in the top 100, New Haven, is one of three with a negative employment outlook. 

According to the data analyzed by Manpower, the Hartford MSA had a +14% positive employment outlook, while Bridgeport had a +1% and New Haven a -3% for the 4th quarter of 2020.  Leading the list were Rochester, NY at +29% and Springfield, MA at +23%.  The three Connecticut MSA breakdowns:

·         Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA employers plan to hire at an upbeat pace in Q3 2020 with an Employment Outlook of 14%. Among employers surveyed, 16% plan to hire more employees from October through December. This number is offset by the 2% that plan to reduce payrolls while 78% of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 4% indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 14%.

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·         Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT MSA employers plan to hire at a reserved pace in Q3 2020 with an Employment Outlook of 1%. Among employers surveyed, 13% plan to hire more employees from October through December. This number is offset by the 12% that plan to reduce payrolls while 69% of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 6% indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 1%.

·         New Haven-Milford, CT MSA employers plan to hire at a limited pace in Q3 2020 with an Employment Outlook of -3%. Among employers surveyed, 3% plan to hire more employees from October through December. This number is offset by the 6% that plan to reduce payrolls while 79% of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 12% indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of -3% for the region.