CT, NY, NJ Should Expect Unprecedented Flooding by Mid-Century, Scientists Predict

It will get worse, not better, for shoreline residents and businesses in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey within range of the Atlantic Ocean.  That’s the likely scenario based on newly completed research by a team of geoscientists who are predicting that the New Jersey shore will likely experience a sea-level rise -- about 1.5 feet by 2050 and of about 3.5 feet by 2100 – that will be 11 to 15 inches higher than the average for sea-level rise globally over the century.

That would mean that by the middle of this century, the one-in-10 year flood level at Atlantic City, for example, would exceed any flood level seen previously, including the natural disaster that was Superstorm Sandy.  The scientists suggest, based on their research, that “planners should account for rising sea levels,” noting that “where the consequences of flooding are high, prudent planning requires consideration of high-end projections” outlined in their study.

Geoscientists at Rutgers University and Tufts University base their projections in part upon an analysis of historic and modern-day records of sea-level rise in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. Their research appears in the inaugural issue of the journal Earth's Future, published this month by the American Geophysical Union (AGU).

While much to the work centers on the New Jersey shore and The Battery in Lower Manhattan, Rutgers researcher Ken Miller told Connecticut by the Numbers that their analysis included both Montauk on Long Island and Bridgeport.  Since Connecticut lies on bedrock, Miller said, it will largely behave like The Battery in New York City.  “I believe that the projections for bedrock locations are applicable throughout Connecticut,” said Miller, a professor of earth and planetary sciences in Rutgers' School of Arts and Sciences. 

Miller collaborated in the study with colleagues Robert Kopp, Benjamin Horton and James Browning of Rutgers and Andrew Kemp of Tufts. Kemp, an assistant professor of earth and ocean sciences at Tufts since May, joined the faculty from Yale University, where he was a Postdoctoral Associate at the Yale Climate and Energy Institute (YCEI).  The new research builds upon a recent study by Kemp, Horton and others that reconstructed a 2,500-year record of sea level at the New Jersey shore. Horton is a professor of marine and coastal sciences in Rutgers' School of Environmental and Biological Sciences.

"It's clear from both the tide gauge and geological records that sea level has been rising in the mid-Atlantic region at a foot per century as a result of global average sea-level rise and the solid earth's ongoing adjustment to the end of the last ice age," Miller told Rutgers Today. "In the sands of the New Jersey coastal plain, sea level is also rising by another four inches per century because of sediment compaction -- due partly to natural forces and partly to groundwater withdrawal. But the rate of sea-level rise, globally and regionally, is increasing due to melting of ice sheets and the warming of the oceans."

The researchers suggest that “additional work is needed to integrate site-specific sea-level rise projections with storm tide statistics to guide planning decisions and investments that may have time frames of 20 years, 40 years, or longer.”  They indicate that sea-level rise in the mid-Atlantic region also results from changes in ocean dynamics. The researchers said sea-level rise could be higher -- 2.3 feet by mid-century and 5.9 feet by the end of the century -- depending on how sensitive the Gulf Stream is to warming and how fast the ice sheets melt in response to that warming.

The study found that the eight inches of climate change-related regional sea-level rise in the 20th century exposed about 83,000 additional people in New Jersey and New York City to flooding during 2012's Superstorm Sandy.  The research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation.

Earth’s Future, with its inaugural issue, joins AGU’s prestigious portfolio of peer-reviewed research publications, including Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres. Both are ranked among the top ten most-highly cited research publications on climate change over the past decade.  The American Geophysical Union is dedicated to advancing the Earth and space sciences for the benefit of humanity through its scholarly publications, conferences, and outreach programs. AGU is a not-for-profit, professional, scientific organization representing more than 62,000 members in 144 countries.

Connecticut Ranks 17th in Beach Closings/Advisories in 2012

As the summer beach season moves into full swing, Save the Sound, a program of Connecticut Fund for the Environment, is calling attention to the number of days that Connecticut beaches had to be closed, or were under public advisories during 2012 due to environmental or related factors. The Natural Resources Defense Council’s (NRDC) annual “Testing the Waters” report, issued last week, found that Connecticut beaches were closed or under advisories for 198 days in 2012. That is down from 538 in 2011 but still more than twice the number of closings/advisories in 2010, 2009, or 2008.

The report analyzes beach closure and advisory statistics from beaches around the U.S.; Connecticut ranked 17th out of the 30 states listed.

According to the NRDC report, 22 percent of Connecticut’s closing/advisory days last year were due to monitoring that revealed elevated bacteria levels and 29 percent were preemptive due to heavy rainfall, which can overwhelm outdated stormwater systems and wash untreated sewage into rivers and the Sound. The remaining days were preemptive due to wildlife.

The beaches with the worst records for exceeding the state's daily maximum bacterial standard were Pear Tree Point Beach in Fairfield County and Seabluff Beach in New Haven County, which tested above the maximum 28 percent of the time; Oak Street B Beach in New Haven County at 20 percent; and Fairfield County’s Calf Pasture Beach, Weed Beach, and Rowayton Beach, all at 19 percent.

“When it comes to clean water, being ‘middle-of-the-pack’ is not good enough,” said Leah Schmalz, director of legislative and legal affairs for Save the Sound. “One out of every ten American citizens lives within an hour’s drive of Long Island Sound, and they deserve clean, safe beaches—even one closing because of bacteria and pollution is too many.”

“Just an inch of rain in 24 hours causes many local health departments around the Sound to shut down beaches. Drought conditions may provide the perfect beach weather—no rain means no contamination from stormwater runoff—but we can’t rely on Mother Nature to do our pollution control for us. If we want to enjoy our coastline, eat local seafood, and promote tourism along the shore, rain or shine, we have to be proactive. That means stopping pollution at the source by upgrading our sewage treatment plants, separating the combined sewer overflows that dump almost two billion gallons of untreated sewage into our waterways each year, and investing in innovative stormwater runoff solutions like drain filters and green infrastructure.”

By comparison, the same NRDC report found that Westchester County in New York lost 112 beach days in 2012, and that New York State ranked 22nd out of 30 states, up from 24th in 2011.

Two Westchester County beaches had the first- and third-worst records in the state for the number of water samples that exceeded the state bacterial standard. Bacterial levels at Shore Acres Club in Mamaroneck tested above the standard fully 50 percent of the time, and Surf Club in New Rochelle exceeded 35 percent of the time. Overall, Westchester County beach samples exceeded the standard 14 percent of the time, making Westchester the fourth-worst tested county in New York. Bronx County, which also affects water quality in the western Sound, came in at number three.

Save the Sound issues weekly Sound Swim Alerts for Connecticut and Westchester County to inform residents when beaches are open for swimming and when they are closed. The alerts can be found on Save the Sound’s blog.

Additional info on water pollution, contamination and depletion.

Blizzard of '78 Numbers Still Devastating, Unsurpassed

With “historic” levels of snow predicted by some local meteorologists for Friday and Saturday, it is natural to look back at an unforgettable February snowfall in the state 35 years ago this week.  The Blizzard of ’78 is legendary not only in the amount and intensity of the snow and wind, but in other impacts as well, including coastal high tides and damage to homes and property, and even politics – it is seen as central to the re-election later that year of Governor Ella Grasso. Just a year ago, Connecticut Public Television aired a new documentary about the Blizzard of ’78, which included these statistics not soon forgotten by those in the state at the time:

• 30 inches of snow
• 70 mile per hour winds
• 5,000 people stranded
• 16 foot snowdrifts
• Air and rail traffic were shut down amidst 3 days of snow
• Snowfall as high as 4 inches per hour
• 1,200 cars towed from state highways and thousands stuck on secondary roads

A retrospective published in The Hartford Courant adds these statistics:

• More than $25 million in damage
• A contingent of 547 soldiers from Fort Hood, Texas,   flew to Connecticut to help National Guard crews with snow removal and clean up
• Mail delivery ceased for the first time in 40 years
• Gov. Grasso shut down the state for three days, and President Carter  declared Connecticut, Rhode Island and  Massachusetts federal disaster areas.

It was a storm for the ages, the likes of which Connecticut has not seen in more than three decades.  We’ll see what this weekend brings.

Record Temperatures Seen in Connecticut and Beyond

It was really never in doubt.  March of 2012 was a historic month of weather.   In Connecticut, there were record high temperatures in all regions of the state and the temperature actually reached 80° at Bradley International Airport! The average high temperatures were a stunning 4-5 degrees higher than normal.  To average that high above normal means there were consistent temperatures well above normal.Connecticut was not alone. During that historic week in late March when temperatures were in the 70’s here, over 6000 records were broken in the United States.  In fact, there were 15,292 warm temperature records set in March 2012 nationwide. This is a combination of 7,775 daytime records and 7,517 nighttime records. Hundreds of locations set all-time March records. There were 21 instances of nighttime temperatures being as warm or warmer than the existing record high temperature for the date. The map of red dots shows where daily record highs were broken or tied in March 2012.