CT Residents See Regionalism as Viable Option for Local Services; Highway Improvement A Transportation Priority

Connecticut residents believe that some services traditionally handled by individual municipalities  can be effectively delivered regionally.  A new statewide survey found that public health earns the most support for a regional approach and public safety the least.  More than 3 in 4 people (76%) say that public health services can be provided on a regional basis, followed by animal control (68 percent) and education (66 percent).  The survey found that 65 percent of state residents believe that library services can be delivered regionally, and 61 percent share that view regarding public safety services. The survey for InformCT, a public-private partnership that provides independent, non-partisan research, analysis, and public outreach, was administered by researchers from the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. (CERC) and Smith & Company.  The analysis is based on the responses of survey of 510 state residents, with a margin of error of 5 percent. 

Survey respondents were asked about regionalization of services in surveys conducted in the first three quarters this year, and support was generally consistent – respondent’s views of regionalizing the various services did not vary more than four percentage points for any of the policy areas during that time.  Favorability of regionalization of public health services has increased each quarter, while regionalizing education has increased from Quarter 1.  While support for regional public safety services has also increased from Quarter 1, it received the least support among the services queried in each survey.  Only regionalizing libraries has seen a decline from the first quarter, and preferences for regionalizing animal control has held steady.

“Increasingly, towns will not be able to afford to sustain the level of services to which they have become accustomed, as budget pressures increase along with a reluctance to raise taxes. Residents showed concern, and a willingness to consider regionalism as a partial solution,” said Robert W. Santy, who serves as Board Chair of Inform CT and is President & CEO of the Connecticut Economic Resource Center (CERC) Inc.

The  also found that the most important factor when choosing a town in which to live, is property taxes, followed by the quality of the school system.  Those factors earned 53 percent and 51 percent of respondents, respectively, who describe the factor as “very important” - the only aspects  described as very important factor by a majority. Other factors deemed very important include recent appreciation of home values (30 percent), proximity to transportation and employment (29 percent) and proximity to entertainment ad amenities (24 percent).

The survey  also asked about transportation in Connecticut, finding that 74 percent said they use their car almost every day.  Other modes of transportation were not nearly as popular.   More than 80 percent indicated that they had used a local bus (86%), long distance bus (91%), commuter rail (87%), Amtrak (92%), an airplane (92%) or a bicycle (82%) only once, or not at all, in the past month.  Regarding state spending to improve transportation, respondents ranked highway improvements as the highest priority by a wide margin, with commuter rail, local bus, and bicycle lanes/pedestrian walkways, ranked next highest.  Highway improvements was described as the highest priority by more respondents than the other six options combined.

Rate of Success Obtaining Venture Capital is High in Hartford, Study Finds

A look at the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas to see how entrepreneurs have fared in their quests to secure money from venture capitalists, angel investors, and online crowds brought a somewhat surprising result – among the cities mentioned as ranking high in venture funding success rates was Hartford. Connecticut’s Capitol was listed among a handful of cities with success rates for businesses seeking venture capital that “are about twice as high as the national average.” According to a new report issued this month by the Kauffman Foundation, roughly $68 billion was invested in venture capital (VC) deals in the United States in 2014 and 7,878 employer businesses reported receiving venture capital funds. Thirty percent of those recipients were located in just four metro areas: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston. The national average was 0.2%.

Among the metro areas that rank highly in terms of those venture funding success rates, according to the report “Trends in Venture Capital, Angel Investing and Crowdfunding,” include: San Francisco, CA (0.8%), San Jose, CA (0.8%), Boston, MA (0.5%), Hartford, CT (0.5%), Memphis, TN (0.4%), Minneapolis, MN (0.4%), Philadelphia, PA, (0.4%), Richmond, VA (0.4%), Washington, D.C. (0.4%). Among the lowest ranked of the 50 largest metropolitan regions in the nation, at 0.1 percent, were Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Orlando, Riverside, and Tampa.

The report noted that “Some perhaps unlikely metro areas rank highly in terms of those venture funding success rates: Hartford, Memphis, Richmond, and Buffalo. This doesn’t necessarily mean that there are higher quality firms there, and, of course, the volume of firms seeking VC is smaller…And, these data don’t mean that all the funding came from local sources: venture capital firms in New York could be investing in Hartford businesses. But these numbers lend credence to arguments…that high-quality deals can be found everywhere, and that firms in these regions can succeed in raising equity capital.”

While 10.3 percent of entrepreneurs report using personal credit cards when starting their business, nationally, only 0.6 percent initially received venture capital, the analysis found.

The metros with the highest percentage of firms receiving venture capital funding when starting include: San Jose (2.4%), San Francisco (1.5%), Salt Lake City (1.3%), Austin (1.2%), Baltimore (1.1%), Birmingham (1.1%), and Nashville (1.1%).

According to the report, based on the 2014 Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs (ASE), “the primary sources of initial financing for new businesses in the United States are: personal and family savings, bank business loans, and personal credit cards.”  The report notes, however, that “entrepreneurs also tap other sources of funding, including venture capital, which “can be disproportionately important for business growth.”

The ASE, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, is the largest annual survey of American entrepreneurs ever done, and is done in a public-private partnership between the Census Bureau, the Kauffman Foundation, and the Minority Business Development Agency. The ASE samples approximately 290,000 employer businesses across all U.S. geographies and demographics, the report explained.

The top metropolitan statistical area for crowdfunding success in 2014 was Charlotte; for angel investing, San Jose led the way.  The report concludes that the concentration of venture capital firms in California, Massachusetts, and New York, “is well-correlated with the relative concentration of firms that receive VC investments.” Crowdfunding campaigns in Minneapolis and Oklahoma City, the report indicates, “may not be entirely due to local funders.”

“The ASE data add quantitative confirmation to what we know from other sources: high-quality entrepreneurs can be found—and can get funding—in nearly every corner of the United States.”

Including Hartford.

CT is Among 24 States Seeing Weak Revenues, Highest Number Since Recession

Connecticut is not alone. According to the National Association of State Budget Officers’ (NASBO) annual state spending survey, half of all states saw revenues come in lower than budgeted in fiscal 2016 and 24 states – including Connecticut - are seeing those weak revenue conditions carry into fiscal 2017. That is the highest number of states falling short of revenue projections since 36 states budgets missed their mark in 2010, according to the NASBO report and Governing.  As a result, 19 states made mid-year budget cuts in 2016, totaling $2.8 billion, Connecticut among them. That number of states “is historically high outside of a recessionary period,” according to the report.  The revenue slowdown is caused mainly by slow income tax growth, even slower sales tax growth and an outright decline in corporate tax revenue, the report explains, stating that “progress since the Great Recession has been uneven, and many states are seeing softening state tax collections.”

Overall, state spending totaled $786 billion last fiscal year, a 3.7 percent annual increase. Although it marks the seventh straight year of spending growth, it represents a slowdown from fiscal 2015 when spending increased by 4.4 percent.

“Weaker-than-anticipated revenue collections and resulting budget gaps in fiscal 2016 led some states to cut spending during the year,” the report indicated, with overall spending increasing just 1.8 percent to $781 billion in fiscal 2016, compared with the previous year’s growth of 5 percent. When accounting for inflation, 32 states are still spending less than they did before the Great Recession and total state spending also has yet to surpass pre-recession levels.  Across the states, cuts enacted by legislatures come most often in K-12 education, an “all other” category, followed by Medicaid, higher education and corrections, according to data compiled for the NASBO report.

The state has an estimated $1.3 billion or $1.5 billion budget deficit, according to reports from the governor’s Office of Policy and Management and the legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Fiscal Analysis, CTNewsJunkie reported recently.

“Certainly a recession is coming sometime soon,” said NASBO President-elect Michael Cohen, who is also California’s finance director, told Governing. “But I think economists in all of the state offices would tell you that’s a really hard economic forecasting [task] of predicting when that’s going to happen.”  NASBO had previously predicted that fiscal 2016 would mark the full recovery of state budgets from the recession, but the cutbacks and increased inflation has delayed that at least another year.

The report indicates that eight (including energy-producing states like Alaska, North Dakota and Oklahoma) planned to spend less in 2017, and 11 states planned to up their spending by 6 percent or more next year. In those states, sales tax increases have improved their revenue with Louisiana, for example, anticipating a 17 percent increase in revenue, driven by an expected $800 million increase in sales tax collections.

Most states have focused on strengthening their rainy day funds, according to the report, though some states – particularly energy-producing ones – have had to tap their reserves to help address budget shortfalls. Twenty-nine states increased their rainy day fund balances in fiscal 2016, and 25 states project increases in fiscal 2017. Since aggregate rainy day fund levels hit a recent low in fiscal 2010, 40 states had increased their amounts as of the end of fiscal 2016, at least in nominal terms, the report said.

“States will also have to contend with rising spending demands in areas such as health care and education, long-term pressures such as pensions and infrastructure, and increasing federal uncertainty,” the report predicted, “particularly concerning the prospects of tax reform and health care policy. In this environment, states are likely to be cautious in their spending and revenue forecasts, as they continue to focus on ensuring structurally balanced budgets.”

https://youtu.be/uAvz-zo9NQw

MA Overtakes CT, Jobs on Horizon for EB - Bad News, Good News for State Economy

Connecticut is “in a rut”according to one regional newspaper, while another is reporting on plans by a local company to hire 14,000 workers during the next decade.  Bad news and good news, simultaneously. “Ten years ago, it was the undisputed economic king of New England, with average incomes 13 percent higher than Massachusetts and 40 percent above third-ranked New Hampshire,” the Boston Globe's data reporter says of Connecticut.  “Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, low- and middle-wage workers in Connecticut consistently took home bigger paychecks than their Massachusetts peers.  In the past few years all these economic advantages have disappeared. Unemployment is now far lower in Massachusetts. And Bay State employees get the best wages — whether you look at low-earners, top-earners, or those in the middle.”

The Globe cites recent housing data to underscore the point.

“Of all the cities tracked by the National Association of Realtors, 90 percent have seen their housing prices rise since 2010. That leaves just 17 metropolitan areas still trying to claw back from the recession. Four of those underwater markets are in Connecticut — and they extend to virtually every corner of the state, from Stamford in the southwest to New London in the east and as far north as Hartford.”

“Among the biggest changes in the Massachusetts economy,” the Globe column points out, “has been the explosion of professional, scientific, and technical services — think architects, engineers, software designers, consultants, and scientific researchers. Since 2000, this sector has grown by nearly 50 percent in Massachusetts, which is a key reason the state as a whole has performed so well. In Connecticut, these same fields have expanded by just 6 percent.”

Globe reporter Evan Horowitz, who writes the paper’s Quick Study column using data to discuss policy,  notes that “without a hub like Boston, Connecticut can’t simply pull pages from the Massachusetts playbook.”  He suggests that “a Trump-fueled surge in corporate profits and stock valuations could provide a much-needed boost to the state’s fortunes. But if there’s one lesson of recent years, it’s that counting on Wall Street excess to compensate for other economic ills is a dangerous strategy; bubbles burst, recessions happen, and in the absence of a long-term economic strategy, Connecticut could once again find itself floundering.”

A brighter ray of potential economic sunshine is reported by the Day of New London, outlining plans by General Dynamics Electric Boat in Groton for a massive decade-long hiring spree resulting from an increase in submarine orders by the U.S. Navy, spurred by “strong Congressional support.”

“The company will hire 14,000 new employees over the next 13 years,” the Day reports.  “Those employees will fill new positions and those being vacated by retirees and those who leave for other reasons. The burst in new hires will take EB from its workforce of 14,500 today to 18,000 in 2030.  This year alone, the company hired 1,600 new full-time employees. Another 800 received conditional job offers and are in the process of applying for a security clearance or awaiting that clearance.”

Reporter Julia Bergman indicates that “six different submarines are currently under construction there. Another is in for its ‘50,000 mile checkup.’ And an eighth is undergoing a major overhaul.”

The work – and the jobs – extend beyond EB.

“While the engineering workforce has neared its peak, EB will continue to hire a larger number of shipyard personnel such as welders, machinists, and electricians,” the Day reports. “About 40 percent of this year’s new hires were tradespeople.”  Training programs and local colleges are straining to meet the demand, the newspaper reports.

Underscoring the importance of healthcare to Connecticut’s economy, there is a new number one employer (by number of employees) in the state, according to published reports.  A year ago, United Technologies was the largest employer in Connecticut, according to 24/7 Wall Street.  After selling its helicopter division, Sikorsky, UTC’s employee headcount dropped from around 24,500 to an estimated 16,000. With 20,396 total employees, Yale New Haven Health is now the largest employer in Connecticut, the publication notes.  Yale New Haven Health includes Bridgeport Hospital, Greenwich Hospital, Yale New Haven Hospital, Yale New Haven Children's Hospital, Smilow Cancer Hospital at Yale New Haven and Yale New Haven Psychiatric Hospital.  The Hartford Business Journal last year ranked Hartford Healthcare, with 18,000 employees, just behind Yale New Haven Health.  Hartford Healthcare acute care facilities include Backus Hospital, Hartford Hospital, The Hospital of Central Connecticut, MidState Medical Center and Windham Hospital.

Panera in Connecticut: State of Flux

If you’re looking for a Panera location in Connecticut, check twice before you head out for a sandwich.  There may be a new location opening nearby, or the locale you’re familiar with may have already closed its doors. The churn at Panera may not be unusual, but it did come as an unwelcome surprise to regulars at the Newtown location when it abruptly closed in mid-November, with a sign on the door saying farewell (and please visit other locations.)   And later this month, the long-time location in Darien will be closing.

The Darien store has been renting 3,754-square-feet — the entire first floor of its building, since 2007, when it became the first Panera Bread restaurant to open up in Connecticut, according to published reports.

The chain now has more than 2,000 locations, including in Connecticut – some owned by the company, most by franchisees.  While the departure from Newtown was an unexpected surprise to customers, plans to leave the Darien location have been known since June, when it was first reported by local media.

Last fall, a Panera location closed in Meriden and a location in nearby Wallingford opened. Also on the plus side, a Panera opened earlier this year at Evergreen Walk shopping plaza in South Windsor.  As of this spring, there were 17 Panera Bread locations in Connecticut, all across the state.  The Downtown Hartford location, its first in the city, opened in 2013.

As of June 28, 2016, there were 2,007 bakery-cafes in 46 states and in Ontario, Canada operating under the Panera Bread, Saint Louis Bread Co. or Paradise Bakery & Cafe names. Published reports indicate the company has 97,000 employees nationwide and saw a 3.4 percent growth in sales in its third quarter this year. In 2015, it reportedly generated roughly $2.7 billion in revenue. Founder and CEO Ron Shaich attended college at Clark University in Worcester in the 1970’s.

Earlier this year, Fortune magazine reported that the company estimated that over 20% of orders would be produced and paid for digitally by the end of 2016, up from 16%. In some markets, digital sales are making up more than a third of retail sales, according to the company. The restaurant chain says digital orders could make up half of the total business down the road, the magazine reported.

According to the industry website Fast Casual, Panera Bread does not sell single-unit franchises, so it is not possible to open just one bakery-cafe. Rather, the company has chosen to develop by selling market areas which require the franchise developer to open a number of units, typically 15 bakery-cafes in a period of 6 years.

Panera says it serves 3 to 4 percent of all Americans every week.

Changes on the Way in New Haven Media Coverage

The news media focused on New Haven is undergoing some changes, as one publication ends, a new electronic weekly business news round-up is about to begin, and a longtime local business paper is changing its subscription system, reducing the number of non-paying subscribers. New Haven Living magazine, published by the Hartford Courant Media Group in recent years, will cease publication with its January edition, the company recently announced.  The New Haven-focused edition of the weekly CTNOW. an entertainment section, will also cease publication, last publishing on Dec. 29, the company said.

The Courant plans to continue publishing Hartford Magazine and the Hartford edition of CTNOW.  Each monthly addition of New Haven Living was nearly identical to Hartford Magazine, usually with a handful of New Haven-focused articles and features added.  The Courant reported that it made the decision while evaluating opportunities to invest in higher-growth areas and the cost of distribution in Greater New Haven.

Business New Haven, which began publication in 1993, announced in its latest issue that “we are changing our publishing approach” in an open letter to readers from veteran publisher Mitchell Young, under the headline “The Time Has Come To Decide.  Do You Want Business New Haven?”

Young says that “only paid subscribers will be guaranteed” to be included on the newspaper’s circulation list beginning with the next issue.  Subscriptions to the monthly print edition will be $24 per year.

“We believe in the value of quality local publications and we hope you find us worth the cost of a lunch – perhaps that is a way of saying there is No Free Lunch,” the full-page letter said.

A limited number of promotional copies will be limited “based on a proprietary algorithm for the support of our advertisers,” Young noted.  He also indicated that plans are in the works to expand the publication’s CONNTACT.com website in the next year, as “we try to build our subscriber base” for the print edition.  Business New Haven also publishes the monthly New Haven Magazine.

The Hartford Business Journal (HBJ), which prints a weekly print edition in the Hartford region and has a roster of electronic news publications and business-oriented events, added a statewide daily email aimed at business executives statewide in 2013.  The  paper recently announced that for those doing business in New Haven and Middlesex Counties, a weekly news round-up, New Haven Biz, will be added to the HBJ e-mail line-up on February 1.

The email is slated to deliver a weekly roundup of business news and information from the Elm City and beyond, the paper’s website explains. The Hartford Business Journal recently had a prominent location at the Greater New Haven Chamber of Commerce Big Connect annual business-to-business event to promote the upcoming news service.

The publication also emails HBJ Today each weekday at noontime highlighting the day’s lead business stories.  Subscriptions to the email-delivered news products, which also include the CT Health Care Weekly and CT Green Guide Weekly, are free.   CT Morning Blend includes the top business stories from online news sources around the state and the nation “to keep business decision-makers ahead of the competition.” It also includes a stock market snapshot and a business calendar.

HBJ, with a strong local presence in Greater Hartford for more than two decades, is published by New England Business Media, which also publishes the Worcester Business Journal and MaineBiz.  It also sponsors the annual CT Business Expo at the Connecticut Convention Center and numerous business programs and events in the region.

CT Unemployment Rate in Construction Industry Improving, But Remains Among Highest in US

Connecticut’s unemployment rate in the construction industry remained among the highest in the U.S., ranked 39^th among the 50 states in October, although the year-over-year change was the 12^th best in the country.  Connecticut’s October unemployment rate in the industry was 6.7 percent, higher than the U.S. average of 5.7 percent, according to data released by the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC).  The state’s construction industry unemployment rate nudged downward from 7.1 percent in September, but was 6.4 percent in July 2016.  In recent years, the rate ballooned to 18.1 percent in October 2010, at the height of the recession, from a low of 5.8 percent in October of 2008.

Overall, the U.S. construction industry added 19,000 net new jobs in November and has now added jobs for three consecutive months, according to analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled by Associated Builders and Contractors. 

Industry employment is up by 2.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, considerably faster than the overall economy’s 1.6 percent job growth rate. Construction industry employment growth would likely be much sharper if more suitably skilled or trainable workers were available to fill available job openings, according to the ABC.

The data indicate that skilled labor shortage nationally appears to be impacting nonresidential activity more than residential. The nonresidential sector added 1,100 net new jobs in November, while the residential sector added 19,600 positions. Heavy and civil engineering lost 2,100 jobs for the month.

“The demand for construction talent was strong before the election, and the outcome has improved the near-term outlook for private and public construction activity,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.  “The implication is that demand for construction workers is positioned to remain high, which will translate into gradual reduction in industry unemployment and significant wage pressures.

In the state-by-state numbers, calculated for October, the states with the lowest estimated not-seasonally-adjusted construction unemployment rates were North Dakota, Massachusetts, Colorado, Utah, New Hampshire and South Dakota. October not seasonally adjusted (NSA) construction unemployment rates were down in 33 states, including Connecticut, on a year-over-year basis.  Connecticut's October 2015 unemployment rate in the construction industry was 8.0 percent.

North Dakota’s unemployment rate in the industry was 2.4 percent, with Massachusetts at 2.5 percent.  New Hampshire’s construction industry unemployment rate was 3.6 percent.  Elsewhere in New England, Rhode Island’s unemployment rate in the construction industry was fourth highest in the nation, at 8.7 percent in October.

The unemployment rate for all U.S. industries fell to 4.6 percent in November, the lowest rate since mid-2007 and 0.3 percentage points below October’s rate. The labor force lost 226,000 persons for the month, but is still more than 2 million people larger than at the same time one year ago, officials pointed out.

America’s Best States to Live In: Connecticut Ranks Second

The only state that is a better place to live in than Connecticut is Massachusetts, according to a new survey of key data.  Connecticut was ranked second when the website 24/7 Wall St. reviewed three statewide social and economic measures — poverty rate, educational attainment, and life expectancy at birth — to rank each state’s living conditions.  Based on the data analyzed, the state’s motto could easily be “live long and prosper.” Massachusetts, home to one of the nation’s wealthiest and most highly educated populations, followed by neighboring Connecticut, lead the nation in quality of life. Mississippi, the poorest state in the country, trails the other 49 states.

Among the key stats for Connecticut:

• 10-year population growth: 5.8% (10th lowest)
• Unemployment rate: 5.1% (19th highest)
• Poverty rate: 10.5% (6th lowest)
• Life expectancy at birth: 80.4 years (2nd highest)

Quality of life in the United States is heavily dependent on financial status, the survey summary points out. As a consequence, the nation’s best states to live in often report very high incomes. With a median household income of $71,346 a year, fifth highest of all states, Connecticut is the second best state to live in and an especially good example of this pattern, the description of Connecticut’s ranking explains.

The publication notes that “While satisfactory living conditions are possible with low incomes, this is true only to a point. Once incomes fall below the poverty line, for example, financial constraints are far more likely to diminish quality of life.”

Rounding out the top five:  New Hampshire, Minnesota, and New Jersey.  At the bottom of the list: Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia and Mississippi.

Education levels are another major contributor to a community’s living conditions — not just as a basis of economic prosperity, but also as a component of an individual’s quality of life. Due in part to the greater access to high paying jobs that often require a college degree, incomes also tend to be higher in these states. In all of the 15 best states in which to live, the typical household earns more than the national median household income of $55,775, 24/7 Wall St. pointed out.

Like the vast majority of states on the higher end of the list, Connecticut is described as relatively safe. There were 219 violent crimes reported for every 100,000 state residents in 2015, among the lowest rates of all states, the survey stated.  Housing markets are also indicative of quality of living. A high median home value, for instance, frequently means high demand for housing in the area. Nationwide, the typical home is worth $194,500. In most of the 25 top states, the median home value far exceeds the nationwide median.

The survey did not take into account more subjective conditions such as climate preference, the presence of friends and family, and personal history.

To identify the best and worst states in which to live, 24/7 Wall St. devised an index composed of three socioeconomic measures for each state: poverty rate, the percentage of adults who have at least a bachelor’s degree, and life expectancy at birth. The selection of these three measures was inspired by the United Nations’ Human Development Index. Poverty rates and bachelor attainment rates came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2015 American Community Survey. Life expectancies at birth are from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and are as of 2012, latest year for which data is available. Unemployment rates are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and are for October 2016, the most recent available month of data.

CT Residents See Improving Economy, Even As Jobs Remain in Short Supply; Millennials Most Upbeat About Business Conditions

Seven in 10 Connecticut residents say overall business conditions in the state are either better or the same as six months ago, according to the quarterly Inform CT Consumer Confidence Survey, and 75 percent expect conditions to either remain the same or improve in the next six months. The latest survey, covering the third quarter of 2016, also found residents are more willing to spend on major consumer items – a sign of a strengthening economy – and less concern about immediate job security.  The survey also found that millennials, ages 22-25, are the demographic most upbeat about the state’s economic progress, with 41 percent saying overall business conditions were better than six months ago.  Those ages 18-21 and 26-35 had the next most positive views.

In a reversal from the previous quarter, 42 percent of state residents surveyed said they were unlikely to move out of state in the next 5 years, compared with 34 percent who described such a move as likely.  In the previous survey, conducted in the second quarter of this year, the numbers were reversed with 42 percent saying that it was likely they’d be moving out of state within five years, compared with only 32 percent who said such a move was unlikely.

The quarterly survey is released by InformCT, a public-private partnership that provides independent, non-partisan research, analysis, and public outreach to help create fact-based dialogue and action in Connecticut.

Tempering upbeat views is the continuing widely-held opinion that there are “some jobs in Connecticut, but not enough.”  Those expressing that view increased to 63 percent in the third quarter, the highest percentage since the survey began.  An additional 24 percent view jobs as “very hard to get.”  Thus, nearly nine in ten view the number of available jobs as insufficient in the state.  The survey also found:

• Less concern about job security: Only one-third (35%) expressed concern that their job or the job of their spouse/partner is in jeopardy, down from 39 percent in the previous quarter and 42 percent in the first quarter this year.
• Continuing strong concern about health insurance costs: Nearly two-thirds of state residents (64%) say they are concerned about being able to afford health insurance.
• Continuing concern about retirement savings: Overall, 50 percent of those surveyed disagreed with the statement “I will have enough money to retire comfortably,” compared with 23 percent who agreed.  Those currently of working age are most concerned about retirement savings.
• Connecticut is a good place to raise a family: Overall, fifty percent of those surveyed expressed that view, compared with 28 percent who disagreed, a ratio that has been relatively consistent in the quarterly surveys.  The two age groups that agree most are now, or will likely soon be, starting families – 62 percent of those ages 22-25 and 60 percent of those ages 26-35.
• Personal financial situation improving: 30 percent of survey respondents said their personal financial situation was better today than six months ago, compared with 28 percent who said they were worse off.

Residents of Windham and Fairfield counties were more likely to view overall business conditions as being better now than six months ago, the survey found.  Twenty-nine percent of Windham residents held that view as did 28 percent of Fairfield residents.  Residents of the state’s other six counties, Middlesex (23%), New London (20%), New Haven (20%), Litchfield (16%), Tolland (16%) and Hartford (16%) had fewer residents expressing that opinion.

Among other consumer survey findings:

• Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed (73%) said that in the next 6 months they were likely to take a vacation outside the state, the highest proportion since the survey began nearly two years ago, and the fourth consecutive quarterly increase.
• The proportion of respondents likely to make a major consumer expenditure for furniture or another product also was the highest in seven quarters, at 43 percent, up from 26 percent a year ago.
• The percentage of respondents who indicated they were likely to buy or refinance their home (16%) or purchase a new car (26%) were both at levels higher than in the 3rd quarter of 2015.

Administered by researchers from the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. (CERC) and Smith & Company, the analysis is based on the responses of 510 residents across Connecticut and addresses key economic issues, providing a glimpse of the public’s views.  The survey has a margin of error of 5 percent.

Public Hearings Conclude; State Spending Cap Commission Seeks Definitions to Impact Spending Decisions

“Stop with the financial games and own up to the problem.”  That was the succinct comment provided to the 24-member state Spending Cap Commission by Darien resident Ken Weil at a public hearing this fall.  Small business owner Justin Higgins, of Orange, added that citizens should “always know where we stand financially without loopholes and political gamesmanship.” The Commission has held 18 meetings, beginning in March and most recently on November 14, as well as five public hearings during the past two months, during which nearly two dozen people filed testimony.  With the state anticipating an estimated $3.1 billion deficit for the next two fiscal years, dollars and sense will be front and center when the legislature, with 30 new members and a dead-even split in the State Senate, convenes in January.

The Commission next meets on Nov. 28, according to CT-N.  Public Act 15-1, December Special Session (Section 24) established the Spending Cap Commission, charged with creating, for the purposes of the state's constitutional general budget expenditures requirements, proposed definitions of (1) "increase in personal income", (2) "increase in inflation", and (3) "general budget expenditures".

What the commission has been asked to address is two decades in the making - definitional questions with fiscal implications that have influenced policy and budget balancing since the passage of the state income tax in the early ‘90’s.  The Director of UConn’s Center for Economic Analysis, Fred Carstensen, said in an article published this month that “the spending cap as designed has been an unmitigated disaster, fiscally and economically.” 

The Commission is chaired by William Cibes, a former state legislator and Secretary of the Office of Policy and Management when the income tax was imposed and state spending cap was approved by voters, and Patricia Widlitz, also a veteran former legislator.  Members include Republicans and Democrats currently serving in the legislature, and others who have extensive experience with state government, in the public or private sector.  It is likely that the incoming state legislature will be looking to the Commission’s findings, as it grapples with the way forward for state finances.

As the public hearings approached in October, the Commission voted to include the following proposed definitions to be addressed:

• “Increase in personal income” means the compound annual growth rate of personal income in the state over the preceding five calendar years, according to United States Bureau of Economic Analysis data
• “Increase in inflation” means the increase in the consumer price index for urban consumers, all items less food and energy, during the preceding calendar year, calculated on a December over December basis, according to United States Bureau of Labor
• The Commission is still considering potential optional language for the third proposed definition – “general budget expenditures” – it is charged with creating. That language may concern, among others, such expenditures as payments for bonds, notes and other evidences of indebtedness, court orders, federal mandates, grants to distressed municipalities, as well as the use of federal funds and monies contained in the budget reserve fund. Proposed language pertaining to these and other additional topics pertaining to general budget expenditures may also be suggested at the public hearing, and considered by the Commission.

Some of the comments received by the Commission, at hearings in Hartford, New Haven, Bridgeport, Willimantic and Waterbury, are quite clear on what the result ought to be done, even if precise wording is not offered:

Louise DiCocco, Assistant Counsel for the Connecticut Business & Industry Association, noted that “24 years ago, more than 80 percent of Connecticut votes overwhelmingly approved a spending cap to keep the cost of state government within the taxpayers’ means to afford it.  Voters demanded the cap as an offset to the persona income tax in Connecticut.  The state must enact a spending cap that is ironclad and works.”

Added the MetroHartford Alliance in testimony by Vice President Patrick McGloin: “Adoption by the legislature of well-crafted spending cap definitions will clearly demonstrate to our fellow residents and private sector employers that we have the political will to be fiscally disciplined.”  DiCocco noted that “the spending cap has always had a safety valve or escape mechanism.  They include bonded debt service, aid to distressed municipalities and first year costs of federal or court ordered mandates.”

The Connecticut affiliate of the National Federation of Independent Businesses pointed out that “reasonably understood, clear definitions of the key terms that will lead to additional budget transparency, predictability and ultimately cap state spending on an annual basis in a way that aptly reflects the will of the voters,” adding that “business owners feel that the legislature absolutely needs to stop allowing excessive spending to be an option and to recognize the ‘new economic reality’, just as small business owners have had to do. Achieving that goal is the most effective economic development policy we could have, and we believe that implementing the constitutional spending cap, and properly defining component terms, would go a long way in this regard.”

Westport resident Tom Lasersohn observed that “In business you learn that for every one customer that complains, there are many you have already lost as customers. For every citizen who gives testimony to this Commission, there are many who are so disgusted with the State’s fiscal mismanagement and chicanery that they will leave at the earliest convenient opportunity. Many outside the State peer in and resolve ‘no, not for me until the State gets its fiscal act together.’ A responsible definition for ‘general fund expenditures’ will communicate to both current and prospective residents and businesses that we are serious about fixing our problems.”

State Senator Toni Boucher of Danbury told the Commission:  “I hope that the commission to adopt a definition of general budget expenditures that is comprehensive and gives a complete and realistic account of all the money that the state spends… it is equally critical that the legislature not be allowed to move what was once an expenditure included under the cap to bonding or fund it with a revenue intercept for the purpose of undermining the cap’s integrity.”

The final form of Commission recommendations remains unclear.  Minutes of the Commission’s most recent scheduled meetings, on October 31 and November 14, have not yet been posted to the Commission’s website, nor has an agenda for the Nov. 28 meeting (as of Nov. 27).

While Boucher is not a member of the Commission, a number of her legislative colleagues are.  The definitions – and the implications for the state’s budget and taxpayers – may soon be theirs to decide.  A decade ago, a UConn report observed that “the spending cap is only as restrictive as the legislative process decides it should be; its strictures are not written in stone.”

UPDATE: 

link to Agenda for Commission's Final Meeting on Nov. 28, 2016 and CTNewsJunkie article reporting on meeting.

link to CT-N video of Commission's Meeting on Nov. 28  at the Legislative Office Building in Hartford; Next meeting scheduled for Dec. 5