Loyal Donors, Or Not So Much

Only 14 percent of American giving comes from foundations, while 73 percent comes from individuals, according to the most recent annual data.  Thus the likelihood of current donors continuing to contribute year after year to a charitable organization is critical to their ability to continue pursuing their charitable purpose. However, survey data appears inconsistent on whether the trends are good or bad.

A recent survey indicated that for every $100 in new donations nonprofits gained in fiscal year 2014 over the previous year, they lost $95 in lapsed or reduced donations.  While that 5-percent net gain in gifts is "disappointing," Nathan Dietz, senior research associate at the Center on Nonprofits and Philanthropy at the Urban Institute, recently told the Chronicle of Philanthropy that the news regarding donors themselves is even worse: for every 100 new donors gained in 2014, participating nonprofits lost 103.

Charities also were asked what percentage of their 2013 donors made repeat gifts to charities in 2014, and the median was 43 percent, the same as from 2012 to 2013. Or, as Dietz described it, "more donors leave than stay."

The study also reveals a large amount of "churn in the donor universe," Dietz said. "It’s hard to predict for any individual donor in general whether they’re going to be still on the rolls next year, donating money next year."  Others suggest there is anything but churn in individual philanthropic giving.

Writing in Philanthropy Daily, William Schambra points to data that indicates:

• Almost 80% of all gifts are “100% loyal, meaning that there is a virtual certainty that these gifts will be repeated next year.”

• Only 35% of donors ever do any research, and almost three-quarters of these spend less than two hours at it. Among those who do research, only 24% regard outcomes as the most important information.

• Of those who do research, the overwhelming majority – 63% -- use it only to validate their choice once they’ve made it, to confirm that the group they’ve already chosen isn’t a total fraud. Only 13% use the research to actually help them choose between multiple organizations, i.e., to make decisions about which is comparatively the better performer.

Donation and donor-retention rates matter, fundraisers say, because it almost always costs less to keep a current donor than to find a new one, thus reducing the number of current contributors who don’t return is the least expensive way to spur fundraising gains.

So, are individuals coming or going?  Mary Cahalane, a Connecticut-based nonprofit fundraising consultant and author of the blog Hands On Fundraising, said that “the point overall is that what people say is important to them isn't necessarily how they actually behave. That’s a problem with surveys.”  She adds that the “80 percent loyal figure doesn't fit with the national average retention rate in the 40s.”

A well-run organization that focuses on holding on to donors should have a first-year retention rate of around 40 to 45 percent and a multiple-year retention rate of 75 to 85 percent, says Roger Craver, author of the book Retention Fundraising: The New Art and Science of Keeping Your Donors for Life and contributor to The Agitator blog, in the Chronicle of Philanthropy.

Even with seemingly inconsistent data, one lesson, Deitz points out to nonprofit organizations, is clear: "Make sure you don’t neglect the people who have been there, who have supported you. They might not be there for you next year."

Fairfield County’s Community Foundation Strives to Create Opportunities for Young Adults Close to Home

For Fairfield County’s Community Foundation, two local trends are unmistakable.  Connecticut’s population is aging, and too many young people are unable to become self-sufficient by age 25. The recognition that as older, experienced workers retire, Connecticut’s economy will increasingly rely on young adults to provide goods and services, lead companies, and start new businesses has been the impetus for action, and a new initiative underway this fall.

Fairfield County’s 100,000 young people ages 16 to 24 face youth unemployment rates between 13.6 percent and 49.5 percent, one of the nation’s most expensive housing markets, and a shortage of living-wage entry jobs.

A multi-faceted initiative, Thrive by 25, has begun with the clear goal of advancing opportunity for the region’s young adults – no easy task in Fairfield County.

“If our young people are not prepared for tomorrow’s jobs, or they relocate to find quality jobs and housing they can afford, employers will recruit from other states or leave. Businesses will struggle. Unemployment will rise, our tax base will shrink, and the need for government services will increase,” the organization’s website sums up the challenge.

“Our vision is for every young person in Fairfield County to achieve self-sufficiency, thrive by 25, and enrich their communities. We see three paths to this accomplishment: college readiness and scholarships, vocational education, and quality internships,” the website indicates.

The program brochure is encouraging, noting that in a local survey 95 percent of respondents ages 18 to 25 have some vision of what they want to achieve in a career and many are interested in completing a master’s degree.  In addition, the “intersection of jobs and education” is highlighted:  “a growing body of research suggests that low-income teens who participate in after-school internships and summer jobs during high school are likely to have higher grades, better attendance, a greater likelihood of graduation, and a higher average salary throughout their lifetime.”

The action plan is spurred by clear concerns: “When young people are not attending school or working, they cannot attain necessary education or work experience, support themselves, save for their future, or contribute to the economy. What future do they face? What future does Fairfield County face?”

Seven steps have been developed to guide the effort:

1. Listen to Fairfield County’s young adults.
2. Reach out to others who have a role in making an impact on these issues.
3. Make vocational-technical secondary school programs, apprenticeships and personalized training more widely available to high school students.
4. Enhance early college programs and the transition from high school to college
5. Tap into the lessons learned from other local and national efforts
6. Ensure local nonprofits are prepared to be key participants in Thrive by 25
7. Focus the Community Foundation’s resources as effectively as possible

A highly attended Kick-off Breakfast at the Trumbull Marriott launched the initiative, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. announcing an expansion in their commitment to Connecticut, joining the Community Foundation in supporting the Pathways to Careers Fairfield County pilot with a $200,000 grant. The grant is part of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s New Skills at Work initiative, which seeks to address the skills gap that exists across many industries, where not enough trained workers have the specific skills to fill the jobs available.

Pathways to Careers Fairfield County is a multi-sector partnership with high-opportunity and high-growth employers and is based on Our Piece of the Pie’s Pathways to Careers model. Our Piece of the Pie, a Hartford-based, urban youth development and workforce opportunity non-profit organization, has developed the successful upstate CT Pathways to Careers program into a best-practice model for moving young people quickly into jobs with career pathways.

Fairfield County’s Community Foundation promotes philanthropy as a means to create change in Fairfield County, with a particular focus on innovative and collaborative solutions to critical issues impacting the community. Individuals, families, corporations and organizations can establish charitable funds or contribute to existing funds.

The vision of the Thrive by 25 initiative is “to give all Fairfield County youth the opportunity to thrive by age 25 – no matter their family income, school district or zip code.”  For more information, visit www.FCCFoundation.org.

Gun Buyback Program in Hartford on Saturday As Controversy Swirls

In the midst of a heightened public debate regarding gun control, in the aftermath of mass shootings around the country and an increased homicide rate in Hartford in 2015, the Capital Region Gun Buyback program – now in its 7^th year – will take place on Saturday, December 19 at the Community Renewal Team in Hartford. “Unwanted firearms in the home are dangerous,” officials point out, asking that Connecticut residents “turn in a working gun in a clear plastic bag” in exchange for a gift card.  Guns may be turned in anonymously.  Those doing so will receive a $200 gift card for an assault rifle, $100 gift card for a handgun or revolver, and $25 gift card for a shotgun or rifle.  Although held in Hartford and focused on the capital region, the buyback is open to all state residents.

Participating sponsors include Hartford Hospital, Connecticut Children’s Medical Center, Saint Francis Hospital and Medical Center, Connecticut Trial Lawyers Association, Stop & Shop, Lamar Advertising and the Community Renewal Team, at 555 Windsor Street, which is the drop-off location for the weapons.

The program also occurs in the midst of renewed efforts by gun control advocates including Gov. Dannel Malloy. On Monday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Sen. Charles Schumer announced plans for New York to join Malloy in banning gun sales to those on federal no-fly lists.  Malloy proposed the ban last Thursday, announcing he would issue an executive order to ban the sales.  A similar law was passed by New Jersey's legislature two years ago, according to published reports.

Officials in Worcester, Mass. report that the local annual Goods for Guns buyback program there saw over 271 firearms and 54 pellet guns to law enforcement throughout central Massachusetts last Saturday (Dec. 12).  Local residents were able to trade in guns for supermarket gift cards at police departments across the region.  Rifles, replica guns and pellet guns were exchanged for $25. Pistols could be traded in for $50, while $75 was given for semiautomatic weapons.  The Associated Press, citing local officials, reported that 103 rifles, 125 handguns and 43 semiautomatic weapons were turned in.  Worcester collected weapons for the towns of Shrewsbury, Northborough and Westborough.

Hartford police also conducted a gun buyback program in June, which brought two dozen weapons, according to published reports.  And reports leading into last December’s buyback program in Hartford indicated that more than 800 unwanted firearms were collected in the first five years of the annual program.  On December 14, 2014, a total of 104 weapons were collected, according to local officials.  That compares with the first year of the program, in which 78 weapons were turned in.

A similar program in Bridgeport since 2012 has netted more than 1,000 guns.  The most recent buyback program was held in August, according to local news reports, led by the Bridgeport Police Department’s Community Services Division, in which 127 weapons were turned in.  In Stamford, a gun buyback program in 2013 brought in 63 firearms and in 2014 the city’s police department saw 76 firearms turned in.

Officials point out that non-working guns, black-powder weapons, flare guns, pellet/BB guns and ammunition /magazine clips may be turned in, however they will not be eligible for a gift card.  More information about Saturday’s program in Hartford is available by calling 860-249-1072.

In Rochester, New York last month, a one-day gun buyback program saw more than 200 working firearms turned in.  A gun buyback program was held in San Francisco this past weekend.  That city has seen 950 guns turned in during gun buyback programs since 2011.  Totals for this year were not yet available.  That same day in Clearwater, Florida a total of 458 guns were collected by local police officers in about four hours.

Is TV Traffic Reporting in Connecticut For Women Only?

Three of the women who deliver traffic reports each weekday morning on Connecticut's four network-affiliated television stations have backgrounds in television news reporting, and the fourth has made traffic her specialty on local radio stations as well as television.   They are unquestionably hard-working professionals whose reporting is seen, and relied upon, by thousands of commuters each day.  They hold jobs, however, that appear to be reserved for women. Few recall the last time  that a man was the regular morning traffic reporter on a local television station in the sate, although men and women serve, or have served as anchors, reporters, sports reporters, and meteorologists.  At a time when more attention is being paid to the gender-centered nature of some positions in the workplace, televised traffic reporting in Connecticut remains squarely the domain of women.  

Heidi Voight, the traffic reporter for NBC Connecticut, is a Connecticut native, has television news experience in Springfield, Mass., and is a national spokesperson for the M.I.A. Veterans Recovery Project.  The station points out that Voight “has been exposed to nearly every position in the newsroom and has experience reporting, anchoring, shooting video, working on the assignment desk and producing newscasts.”  Voight succeeded Kayla James.

Nicole Nalepa came to WFSB from WWLP-TV/22News in Springfield, MA where she anchored the early morning weekday newscast. She also served as the senior weekday morning reporter and early morning show producer in Springfield, and was one of the first live, on-scene reporters from Western Massachusetts during the manhunt for the Boston Marathon bombing suspect.  Previously, Nalepa was selected for a post-grad summer internship at CBS News on the "CBS Evening News with Katie Couric." She also interned at WFXT-Fox 25 in Boston.  Nalepa succeeded Olessa Stepanova, who moved on to handle traffic chores for Boston's WCVB after three years in Hartford.   

Teresa DuFour has been working in the news and entertainment industry since 2003. The morning traffic reporter for  WTNH News 8’s Good Morning Connecticut started off behind the camera, and worked her way up from the assignment desk to the news desk.  After DuFour graduated from the University of Connecticut in 2001 with her bachelor’s degree in broadcast journalism, she worked at a number of radio stations across the state. She anchored and reported daily newscasts for KISS 95.7 and Westwood One Radio Network. Between 2004 and 2006, she was a reporter and anchor for KTVE and KARD in New Orleans, covering Hurricane Katrina, among other stories.  A native of Middlebury, she had her first child earlier this year, and serves as co-host of the WTNH program Connecticut Style.  She succeeded Desiree Fontaine in both roles.

While DuFour was on maternity leave, traffic was reported by Marysol Castro.  A New York City native and Wesleyan University graduate, Castro previously was an anchor at WPIX-TV in New York City and  weather anchor for the CBS News morning program 'The Early Show.'

Fox CT’s traffic reporter Rachel Lutzker gave birth to her third child earlier this year, is a native New Yorker who first came to Connecticut to attend the University of Hartford. While there she began interning at KISS 95.7 and decided to make a career in media. She is also heard each morning on iHeartMedia Connecticut stations providing up-to-date traffic reports, and doing the same on the drive home each workday on The River 105.9.  Rachel’s career has included stops at WCBS New York as traffic reporter, WFSB-TV and now WTIC-TV.

The website payscale.com reports that 59 percent of traffic reporters nationwide are women.   When the CBS affiliate in Chicago was seeking a new traffic reporter a few years ago, they held open tryouts among viewers.  The winner of the  CBS 2 Chicago Traffic Tryouts competition, Derrick Young, was awarded a contract and continues to report the traffic alongside the station's morning news team.

PHOTOS:  Nicole Nalepa,  Teresa Dufour, Heidi Voight, Rachel Lutzker (credits: station websites)

NOTE:  This story will be updated as additional information becomes available.

Charter Oak to Offer College Credit for Completed MOOCs

One of the leading unanswered questions in higher education globally is how MOOCs – Massive Open Online Courses – will evolve in the coming years.  Those college-level courses, delivered on-line and offered by some of the top institutions in the U.S. and around the world, are open to anyone, without charge, but also without college credit.  Tens of thousands of people have taken courses, but turning those courses into college credits that could lead to a degree has been largely absent from the higher education equation. Now, Connecticut’s Charter Oak State College  is setting out to change that.

Connecticut’s public online college has announced that it will award credit for select online courses taken through the edX.org platform, one of the most popular MOOC programs.  edX participating  institutions include Harvard, MIT, CalTech, University of Texas System, University of California – Berkley, Davidson, Dartmouth,  Princeton, University of Pennsylvania and University of Chicago.

Founded by Harvard University and MIT in 2012, edX offers “high-quality courses from the world’s best universities and institutions to learners everywhere.” According to the edX website, the organization was “founded by and continue to be governed by colleges and universities,” and is “the only leading MOOC provider that is both nonprofit and open source.”

This collaboration creates the potential for edX learners to earn college credit for those courses reviewed and approved by Charter Oak’s Connecticut Credit Assessment Program (CCAP). Ed Klonoski, President, Charter Oak State College said, “For Charter Oak, evaluating prior learning for college credit is what we were created to do. Now, we have the opportunity to partner with a worldwide leader in online learning, edX, to award college credit for successful completion of select courses.”

“We are pleased to offer a new pathway to college credit through this collaboration with Charter Oak State College,” said Anant Agarwal, edX CEO and MIT Professor. “EdX learners around the world will now be able to earn credit for their hard work and success in MOOCs, offering an opportunity to many who would otherwise never have access to high-quality education and credit.”

The edX website indicates the MOOCs are offered by 85 global partners, and 580,000 course completion certificates have been issued in just the past few years.

The first two edX courses Charter Oak will offer credit for are open for enrollment now, www.edx.org/charter-oak , and begin in January. They include MITx’s Introduction to Computer Science and Programming Using Python beginning January 13, and UC BerkeleyX’s Engineering Software as a Service (SaaS) Part 2 beginning January 11. Learners can earn three lower level college credits from Charter Oak for the successful completion of the MITx course, and two upper level credits from Charter Oak for the UC BerkeleyX course.

Additional edX courses continue to be reviewed for credit, and will be included in the program in the coming weeks and months, officials indicated.

Klonoski added, ““This partnership reflects our mission of using non-traditional means to speed adults toward the completion of their college degrees in a cost effective manner.  It is another innovative strategy for us to increase enrollment and support our sustainability by providing an outstanding value to students. The total cost to students of the course and credit is approximately $350.”

Officials highlighted the benefits for edX learners:

• Course credit for open online courses – Charter Oak provides a pathway for learners to earn accredited college credit for knowledge learned through MOOCs.
• Cost Effective – students earn affordable college credit that can then be applied to credentials, continuing ed credits, or completion of a college degree.
• Learn before payment - students learn now and decide to pay later for college credit. This provides qualified students with a pathway for academic exploration who may otherwise not seek college credit.
• Unlimited Reach – an unlimited number of students worldwide can study and receive college credit without any barriers of scaling up.
• Eliminates Barriers to Admission – students can study and earn credit, sidestepping the process of applications, application fees and transcript requests.

Participating students in the new initiative will first enroll as a verified student on edX.org in a course that Charter Oak State College has reviewed and approved for credit. Students then take the course through the edX.org platform. Students have the ability to check at any time as they progress through the course as to whether they have met the requirements for credit.

Once credit eligibility has been attained, a message appears on the student’s dashboard and they are sent an email. Students can then complete the request for credit from Charter Oak and fee payment on the edX site. Students then confirm their credit request with Charter Oak State College, and will then have credit on a Charter Oak State College transcript that can be used to meet continuing education, professional certification or degree requirements at other institutions or at Charter Oak State College.

Founded in 1973, Charter Oak State College (www.CharterOak.edu) is Connecticut’s only public online college.  Charter Oak students complete degrees through online courses and alternative approaches to earning credit. Charter Oak is accredited by the New England Association of Schools and Colleges and governed by Connecticut’s Board of Regents for Higher Education.

Connecticut Among Five States with Highest Percentage of Foster Children in Group Homes, Report Says

According to a recent report, the percentage of children in foster care in Connecticut who have not been placed with a foster family is among the highest in the nation.  The report, from the Annie E. Casey Foundation, highlights the differing policies and practices among states, stressing that “kids should live with relatives or foster families when they have been removed from their own families, but one in seven nationally lies in a group placement.” In Connecticut there are 4,071 children in foster care, with 74 percent in family placement and 24 percent in non-family placement, exceeding the national average, according to the report.  That compares with 84 percent in family placement and 14 percent in non-family placement, nationally.  Only Colorado (35%), Rhode Island (28%) and West Virginia and Wyoming (27%), had a higher percentage of foster children than Connecticut in a non-family placement.

The state-by-state data from 2013, the most recent year available, shows use of group placements varies widely by state, ranging from 4 percent to 35 percent of children under the system’s care.  In Oregon, Kansas, Maine and Washington, only 4 to 5 percent of young people in out-of-home care are in group placements, the report points out.

The Foundation’s policy report issued this month, Every Kid Needs A Family, highlights “the urgent need to ensure, through sound policies and proven practices, that everything possible is being done to find loving, nurturing and supported families to children in foster care.” The report highlights the promising ways that state and local government leaders as well as policymakers, judges and private providers can work together as they strive to help these 57,000 children who are living in group placements – and overall, the more than 400,000 children in the care of child welfare systems.

The report goes on to recommend how communities can widen the array of services available to help parents and children under stress within their own homes, so that children have a better chance of reuniting with their birth families and retaining bonds important to their development. And it shows ways in which residential treatment — a vital option for the small percentage of young people who cannot safely live in any family during treatment — can help those young people return to families more quickly and prepare them to thrive there.

“We have an obligation to help all of our kids succeed,” said Patrick McCarthy, president and CEO of the Casey Foundation. “If our children couldn’t live with us, we would want them to live with someone close to us - and if that couldn’t happen, with a caring foster family who could provide them with as normal a life as possible during a turbulent time. This report shows more kids can live safely in families and get the nurturing they need while under the care and protection of our child welfare systems.”

Among the report’s findings across the United States:

• One in 7 children under the care of child welfare systems live in group placements, even though federal law requires that they live in families whenever possible.
• Forty percent of the children in group placements have no documented behavioral or medical need that would warrant placement in such a restrictive setting.
• While research shows children who need residential treatment likely need to stay no longer than three to six months, young people are staying in group placements an average of eight months.
• Group placements cost 7 to 10 times the cost of placing a child with a family.

The report also indicates that African American and Latino youth are more likely than white youth to be placed in group settings, and boys are more likely than girls to be in group placements.  Nationally, African American youth are 18 percent more likely than their white counterparts to be sent to group placements, and boys are 29 percent more likely than girls, according to data cited in the report.

Despite Drop in Summer Passengers, Bradley Continues Year-Over-Year Growth

For the month of October, there was a 3.6 percent year-over-year increase in passengers at Bradley International Airport, the strongest month thi syear, resulting in an overall 1.1 percent increase over the first ten months of the year, compared with 2014.   Save for a slight dip in July and August (and a minimal drop in February) – compared to record numbers in the  summer months a year ago – Bradley continues to see steady year-over-year increases in passenger traffic. The October uptick follows September’s 1.2 percent a percent increase, reflecting increases in passenger traffic in and out of Bradley during seven of the first ten months of the year, compared with a year ago. 

Bradley saw 17,000 fewer passengers in August 2015 compared with the previous August, after a drop of 5,142 passengers in July as compared with July a year ago.  The numbers are included in the minutes of the Connecticut Airport Authority, which oversees Connecticut’s airports including Bradley, the region’s second largest airport after Boston’s Logan Airport.

Since then however, the steady growth has resumed. From January through March, the passenger numbers at Bradley reflected a slight increase of 1.4 percent over the same period in 2014.  If the September and October growth continues in November and December, the airport’s passenger traffic is expected to once again exceed the previous year.

At New England’s other major airports, Logan Airport in Boston showed a passenger increase of 3.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015 above the same period the previous year.  At T.F. Green Airport in Providence, RI, passenger traffic declined by 2.3 percent in the year-over-year comparison.

In April, passenger traffic was up 1.3 percent above 2014 levels.  In May, Bradley again saw a slight uptick from May 2014, with passenger numbers increasing by 3.3 percent to 542,888.  Boston’s Logan Airport was up 4.9 percent from the previous May, and Providence’s T.F. Green Airport was virtually unchanged, up by 63 passengers.

Another increase in June, 1.5 percent above the previous June, continued Bradley’s strong performance.  The same was true of Logan Airport, where passenger numbers were up 5.7 percent in June 2015 as compared with the previous June.

Overall, from January to June, as compared with 2014, passenger numbers at Bradley were up 1.5 percent.  Logan Airport passenger numbers were up 4.4 percent from the previous year, while T.F. Green saw a decline of 1.3 percent.

July saw a decline in passengers at Bradley in the year-over-year comparison.  Bradley’s passenger numbers were down 1 percent for the month – 534,071 in July 2015 versus 539,213 the previous year.  T.F. Green Airport was also down, by 1.7 percent, while Logan saw its passenger numbers higher this year than last, by a considerable 6.8 percent.

In August, passenger numbers at Bradley were down again in 2015 as compared with 2014.  The decline was 3.2 percent, dropping by more than 17,000 passengers, from 538,442 to 521,000.  Logan was up again, by 6 percent, while T.F. Green’s numbers were virtually identical.

Even with the decline in slight declines in February, August and July, however, Bradley still showed a narrow net gain in passengers this year when compared with the first ten months of 2014, just over one percent.  Through September, the calendar year total was 4,435,206.  Among the carriers at Bradley, Southwest (621.027), Delta (489,853), the merged US Air/American (356,209) and JetBlue (310,432) saw the largest number of passengers boarding flights.

Earlier this fall, CAA officials announced the return of trans-Atlantic flights from Bradley, beginning in September 2016.  Bradley will be one of three new locations in the United States to offer Aer Lingus flights to Ireland.  The daily service will include one evening departure from Bradley and one afternoon departure from Dublin.  Published reports indicate that the State offered a $4.5 million guarantee against losses in each of the first two years, plus $5 million in other inducements to establish the Bradley-Dublin route. The financial inducements to Aer Lingus could reach $14 million: up to $9 million in loss protection from the state Department of Economic and Community Development and $5 million from the CAA, including $3.8 million in marketing over three years and about $1.2 million in waivers of various fees at the airport over two years, reports have indicated.

The demolition of the half-century old Terminal B is underway at Bradley, with plans for a transportation center, additional parking (for cars and planes), and free shuttle service from the airport to the train station in Windsor Locks in the planning stages.

The CAA also governs airports in Groton/New London, Danielson, Windham, Waterbury/Oxford, and Hartford/Brainard.  The Authority’s November meeting was cancelled.  It is next scheduled to meet on December 14. The CAA is led by a volunteer Board comprised of regional leaders in transportation, aviation, business, law, politics, economic development, and other areas of industry.  The chair is Mary Ellen Jones of Glastonbury; the vice-chair is Michael T. Long of Simsbury.

CT’s Dropping College Enrollment Expected to Rebound with Different Demographics

Parents of third graders, take note: If demographic patterns hold, your children could be in the largest U.S. college freshman class ever – and likely the most diverse as well.  Although the high numbers may be lower in Connecticut and the Northeast than elsewhere in the country, the demographic changes are strongly expected. The projections are based on the latest analysis from the Pew Research Center, reflecting that in 2007 U.S. births surpassed 4.3 million – a level not seen since 1957, when college enrollment was less common. Based on current trends, demographers make assumptions about the share of those children who will eventually graduate from high school and go on to college.

According to the Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education (WICHE), the high school class of 2025 will be the largest and most ethnically diverse class in the nation’s history – but before the bump, there is a decline.  That’s what colleges and universities are experiencing now.

FT_15.09.10_class2025

This academic year at the state’s four regional state universities (Central, Southern, Eastern and Western), enrollment declined by 1,061 full- and part-time students, a 3 percent drop. Capital Community College in Hartford experienced the largest enrollment drop among the state’s 12 community colleges with 731 fewer students, an 18 percent dip.  Other colleges with sizable drops included Asnuntuck in Enfield (10 percent), Gateway in New Haven (9 percent); Quinebaug Valley in Killingly (8 percent); and Housatonic in Bridgeport (1 percent).  Overall, the state college admissions decline was 6.1 percent. 

With support from the State Capitol, UConn has been able to swim against the tide - the largest freshman class ever at the University of Connecticut — 3,800 students — began the current semester at the Storrs campus. This year's freshman class at Storrs has 220 students more than last year's class of 3,580, and this year's class includes a slightly higher percentage of out-of-state students — 43 percent, compared with 40 percent last year, according to published reports.  Diversity of the students has declined slightly this year, even as the number of international students has climbed dramatically, more than doubling over the past two years.

In Virginia, public four- and two-year schools expect to see a 5 percent head count increase by the 2021-22 academic year, according to projections submitted to the State Council of Higher Education for Virginia, before the numbers begin to rebound. Nationwide since 2009, the number of first-time, full-time freshmen has come down somewhat (from 2.5 million to 2.4 million in 2013), Pew reports.

Generally, the number of first-time, full-time college freshmen tracks closely with the number of births from 18 years earlier. In the post-recession era, about 70 percent of high school graduates go on to be first-time, full-time freshmen in either a two- or four-year college.

FT_15.09.10_class2025_200px

The last enrollment peak happened in 2009, when the children of Baby Boomers reached college age (and 18 years after 1991’s 4.1 million births). In addition, the Great Recession encouraged many young adults to ride out the difficult job market by continuing their education.

After the current admissions downturn, the next “college admissions bubble” is due to arrive with dramatic demographic shifts as well. Immigration and births of second-generation immigrants are likely to drive up the shares of Hispanic and Asian students.

chart

Already, over the past two decades, the share of students graduating from public high schools who are white and non-Hispanic has declined dramatically – from 73 percent in 1995 to 57 percent in 2012, according to the most recent data available, Pew reports. In that time period the shares that are Hispanic and Asian have grown. WICHE projects that this trend will continue, with the public high school graduating class of 2025 being barely majority white (51 percent).

The WICHE report Knocking at the College Door predicted in 2013 that in the South, the most populous region in the country, the number of high school graduates in 2027-2028 would be 8 percent larger than it was in 2008-2009. The situation in the Northeast, which the report defines as Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont, is less rosy, according to the Rockefeller Institute of Government. In this region, the number of high-school graduates is expected to decline by 10 percent between 2009 and 2028. This means approximately 65,000 fewer students will be coming through the educational pipeline and moving into higher education, according to the report.

Nonetheless, a report prepared in 2014 for the Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education, Transform CSCU2020, called for the 17-institution system to take steps to increase enrollment by 2019.  The report, now largely discredited, called for increased enrollment at every institution, with some as high as 10-15 percent.

map

The consultant report called for an increase of 36,000 students system-wide without adding additional faculty or space.  The 17 institutions currently have a total of 92,000 students.  The report recommended experimentation with price reductions for out-of-state-students, changing the name of the state system, asserting a new brand position, developing a new logo and color palette, maintaining low tuition increases, centralizing and outsourcing administrative services such as call centers and marketing, and developing goals for students success and metrics to track progress.

Economic Divide Evident in Comprehensive Statewide Survey; Residents Generally Happy in CT, But 1/3 Face Barriers, Financial Challenges

The largest-ever quality of life survey of Connecticut residents, conducted during the past six months,  has found that four out of five adults report feeling happy and satisfied with where they live; but one-third of adults report just barely or not getting by financially.  The disparities in quality of life across the state’s population were a constant running through the survey results. In-depth interviews were completed with 16,219 randomly-selected adults in every Connecticut city and town. Although Connecticut does well when compared to national and international averages of health, income, and education, survey officials said, results reflect that disparities are still great, with a sizeable share of residents continuing to face significant barriers to economic success, safety, health, and other critical aspects of well-being.

The 2015 DataHaven Community Wellbeing Survey, which asked more than 100 questions of survey respondants, created a detailed portrait of social and economic conditions in towns throughout Connecticut and adjacent sections of New York State.  DataHaven, a non-profit group leading the collection and study of neighborhood-level public data on key social and economic trends, undertook the survey with assistance from Sienna College in New York. It is said to be the most intensive effort of its kind in the United States, according to the survey’s leaders.  Among the key findings:

• 74% of men and 75% of women in Connecticut report feeling mostly or completely happy during the previous day. However, this measure varied widely by income, ranging from 53% among adults earning less than $15,000 per year to 89% among adults earning $200,000 or more.
• Although official unemployment rates have fallen substantially since 2012, 14% of Connecticut workers are still considered “under-employed,” meaning that they have no job and would like to work or they are currently working part-time but would prefer to have a full-time job. Within the Greater New Haven region, the “under-employment” rate among workers fell from 21% in 2012 to 13% in 2015.
• Two-thirds (66%) of Connecticut residents say that they are either doing alright or living comfortably when asked how they are managing financially these days. However, 11% are finding it difficult or very difficult, and an additional 21% say that they are just getting by.
• Many in Connecticut still struggle to afford food, adequate housing, and reliable transportation. One out of every ten adults identifying as white or Asian-American, and one out of every four adults identifying as African-American or Latino, reported that they did not have enough money to buy food for themselves or their family at some point during the past 12 months – in some cases, facing this situation almost every month of the year. About 6% of adults reported that they did not have enough money to provide adequate housing for themselves or their family, and 13% reported a lack of reliable transportation, at some point in the past year.

“The purpose of the DataHaven Community Wellbeing Survey is to produce the highest-quality, neighborhood-level information on issues that are most meaningful to local residents,” explained Mark Abraham, Executive Director of DataHaven.  Abraham also pointed out that “the initiative is helping to strengthen collaborations between dozens of organizations and agencies that are working together to measure social progress and improve population well-being at the statewide and local levels.” The metrics in the survey complement traditional statistics on topics such as employment, personal income, reported crimes, tax base, and industry output.

More than 50 of Connecticut’s leading foundations, hospitals, community institutions, and government agencies have supported the survey initiative.  Major funders are located in Hartford, New Haven, Bridgeport, Stamford, Waterbury, New Britain, Norwalk, Danbury, Greenwich, Middletown, Derby, Bristol, Norwich, New London, Manchester and other cities across the state.

The survey also found that residents of some urban neighborhoods have substantially lower rates of overall satisfaction with where they live as well as much greater concerns about government responsiveness, police effectiveness, and public services. On the other hand, cities such as Stamford, Norwalk, Bridgeport, and New Haven have relatively higher proportions of adults who are optimistic that their neighborhood is improving, and residents of higher-income neighborhoods within these city centers are in some cases significantly more satisfied with local quality of life than the average resident.

"The Connecticut Council for Philanthropy along with other funding partners invested in the first ever statewide Community Wellbeing Survey, a scientific survey of the state’s entire adult population that will provide timely, powerful knowledge about our communities and enable us to better know the people and places we care about,” added Maggie Osborn, President of the Connecticut Council for Philanthropy.

In a departure from most statewide and national surveys, officials said, the DataHaven program brings together existing grassroots efforts across the state – effectively unifying more than a dozen pre-existing regional or local surveys into a single, high-quality effort that now covers all areas in Connecticut. The power of the survey results was greatly enhanced both by the number of respondents, as well as by having the same questions being asked of respondents in many different areas.

DataHaven designed its 2015 Community Wellbeing Survey with the support of nearly 100 local government, academic, health-care, and community partners as well as a panel of epidemiologists and survey research experts. The 20-minute survey, conducted by the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) in Loudonville, New York, involved landline and cell phone interviews with nearly 17,000 randomly-selected adults throughout Connecticut and adjacent sections of Westchester County between April and October, 2015.

CT Ranks 15th in Increase in Gun Permit Background Checks in Recent Years

Last Friday – Black Friday – the number of background checks in the U.S. hit an all-time high for a single day, up five percent from the same day a year ago.  The increase shouldn’t have come as a surprise to those watching the trends in recent years. In seven states, the number of federal firearm background checks more than doubled from 2008 to 2014. No states reported a decrease. Connecticut’s increase ranked the state 15^th highest in the nation.

The 50 states and the District of Columbia were ranked by the percentage increase in number of NICS firearm background checks from 2008 to 2014, in an analysis of data from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System done by Bloomberg media.

The largest increases during the six year period were in North Carolina (240%), Indiana (194%), Delaware (137%), New Jersey (127%), Illinois (118%), Alabama (107%), Florida (105%), D.C. (97%), California (89%) and Tennessee (88%).

The number of background checks in Connecticut grew from 155,885 in 2008 to 270,297 in 2014, and increase of 73.4 percent.

The largest number of background checks in 2014 were in Kentucky (2,492,184), California (1,474,616), Texas (1,465,992), Illinois (1,344,096), North Carolina (1,182,349) and Florida (1,034,546).  Connecticut, with 270,297 background checks in 2014, ranked 25th in the nation.

Because of varying state laws and purchase scenarios, Bloomberg points out that the statistics do not represent the number of firearms sold.

On Black Friday, a record 185,345 background checks – roughly two a second – were processed, according to published reports of FBI data.