CT Unemployment Rate Highest in New England, Higher Since Year Began

Unemployment in Connecticut nudged upwards in March from a month earlier, but remained slightly below a year ago.  The state’s jobless rate of 5.7 was higher than the national rate of 5.0 percent and the highest in New England. Nationwide, the regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

• 21 states had unemployment rate decreases from February,
• 15 states including Connecticut had increases, and
• 14 states and the District of Columbia had no change,

Thirty-six states including Connecticut (and the District of Columbia) had unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier, 12 states had increases, and 2 states had no change.

The national jobless rate, 5.0 percent, was little changed from February and was 0.5 percentage point lower than in March 2015. Job growth occurred in retail trade, construction, and health care. Employment fell in manufacturing and mining.

Connecticut’s unemployment rate was 5.9 percent a year ago in March 2015, dropped to 5.5 percent by January and February of 2016, and climbed to 5.7 percent in March.

Overall in New England, the unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in March, compared with 5.2 percent in March 2015.  Across the region, the unemployment rate has steadily declined during the past year.  The rate was 4.6 percent in January and 4.5 percent in February, according to the BLS data.

Last month, the unemployment rate in Rhode Island was 5.4 percent, in Massachusetts was 4.4 percent, in Maine 3.4 percent, in Vermont 3.3 percent and in New Hampshire 2.6 percent.

The highest unemployment rates in the nation last month were in Alaska (6.6%), West Virginia (6.5%), D.C. (6.5%), Illinois (6.5%), Alabama (6.2%), New Mexico (6.2%), and Louisiana (6.1%).

South Dakota and New Hampshire had the lowest jobless rates in March, 2.5 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, followed by Colorado, 2.9 percent.

“We are still struggling to come to terms with a stubborn new economic reality,” said economist Pete Gioia of the Connecticut Business and Industry Association. “We are adding back low-wage jobs at a much higher rate than high-paying jobs.”

Connecticut has now recovered 77 percent of jobs lost during the recession, CBIA reported, while the U.S. has recovered 161 percent of jobs lost during that same time, according to DataCore Partners.

CT Ranks Behind 33 States as Technology Innovation Adopter, Report Finds

Twelve states and the District of Columbia are now championing innovation-friendly policies at the highest level according to the 2016 Innovation Scorecard, an annual innovation policy performance index developed by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA). Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and Wisconsin are first-time Innovation Champions – the top designation - joining repeat champion winners Delaware, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Texas, Utah, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Connecticut ranked in the third of four tiers, as an Innovation Adopter. The CTA Innovation Scorecard grades every state and the District of Columbia on 10 criteria, ranging from quantitative to qualitative, and ranks them across four categories — Innovation Champions (13 states), Innovation Leaders (20 states), Innovation Adopters (12 states including Connecticut) and Modest Innovators (6 states).

"We hope the Innovation Scorecard will be a guide for states who want to embrace those policies that best drive innovation, create good jobs and fuel economic growth," said Gary Shapiro, president and CEO, Consumer Technology Association. "We've identified and measured some key practices that enable innovators to thrive including drawing entrepreneurs from across the country, welcoming disruptive business models and educating the workers of tomorrow. But unless more state policymakers adopt a light regulatory framework, they risk sending valuable talent and economic growth to a neighboring state - or, far worse, overseas."

The 2016 Innovation Champion states earned high grades for maintaining strong right-to-work legislation, fast Internet access, a robust entrepreneurial climate and an open posture to new business models and technologies. Other Scorecard criteria are tax policy, tech workforce, investment attraction; Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) degrees; unmanned innovations and sustainability policies. Since the last edition of the Scorecard, six states regressed to a lower tier.

Connecticut’s top grade, a B+, come in the Attracts Investment category.  The state earned a B in four categories:  Fast Internet, Tech Workforce, Welcomes New Business Models and Grants STEM degrees, and a B- in Entrepreneurial Activity.  The state’s lesser grades were in the categories Tax Friendly (C-), Innovation-Friendly Sustainable Policies (D) and Right to Work (F).  The report indicates that “Connecticut’s state-run electronics recycling system overcharges residents and manufacturers of consumer tech products, who pay for recycling at twice the market rate.”

The report also highlights an area of decline in Connecticut:  “Over $100 million of venture capital left Connecticut in 2015, causing the state to lose ground after earning an ‘A-’ in the category in the inaugural 2015 Scorecard. Connecticut should improve its tax code, which is among the least growth-friendly in the country, and reform regulations that stifle innovation.”

Among the findings: Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Utah and the District of Columbia have the fastest Internet speeds in the country; Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming are among the leading states - along with the District of Columbia - at creating new jobs and new small businesses; and Arkansas, Maryland, Mississippi and Oregon were the only states earning a top grade for creating a policy environment favorable toward drones.

Consumer Technology Association (CTA)™, formerly the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)®, is the trade association representing the $287 billion U.S. consumer technology industry.

CT Businesses Expect More Hiring During 2nd Quarter, Survey Says

Employers in Connecticut expect to hire at a respectable pace during the second quarter of 2016, which began on April 1, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. From April to June, 19 percent of the companies interviewed plan to hire more employees, while 6 percent expect to reduce their payrolls. Another 75 percent expect to maintain their current workforce levels. This yields a Net Employment Outlook of 13 percent, according to the Survey.

“Hiring intentions are stronger compared to Q1 2016 when the Net Employment Outlook was 8 percent,” said Manpower spokesperson Becca Dernberger. “The hiring pace is expected to slow down compared to one year ago when the Net Employment Outlook was 19 percent.”

For the quarter just underway, job prospects appear best in Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation & Utilities, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Information, Financial Activities, Professional & Business Services, Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality and Other Services. Employers in Nondurable Goods Manufacturing plan to reduce staffing levels, while hiring in Government is expected to remain unchanged, according to the projections.

Plans for potentially massive state employee layoffs, now anticipated in the coming weeks, had not been announced when the survey was conducted.

In the Northeast, the expectations are somewhat better than in Connecticut, as 21 percent  of employers surveyed plan to increase staff levels during Quarter 2 2016 while 4 percent expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +17 percent.

Among Connecticut’s largest municipalities, the net employment outlook for Q2 includes 14 percent in Bridgeport, 13 percent in Hartford and 11percent in New Haven.  Survey results were developed for the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, based on business establishment count.  Leading the list were Charlotte and Omaha at 29 percent, followed by Albany and Boise City and 28 percent, Dallas and Providence and 27 percent, and Phoenix and Toledo at 26 percent.

The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

Of the more than 11,000 employers surveyed in the United States, 22 percent expect to add to their workforces, and 4 percent expect a decline in their payrolls during Quarter 2 2016. Seventy-two percent of employers anticipate making no change to staff levels, and the remaining 2 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring plans. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Net Employment Outlook is +16 percent, relatively stable compared to the Quarter 1 2016 Outlook, +17 percent.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. The weakest outlook for 2016 Q2 are projected in Youngstown, Akron, Baton Rouge, and Las Vegas.

“The U.S. labor market is strong compared to the global situation, with the economy still generating a sufficient number of jobs to keep the unemployment rate down,” said Kip Wright, Senior Vice President, Manpower North America. “However, we now live in a world of ‘certain uncertainty,’ where increased volatility may be here to stay. As a result, organizations and individuals need to be more agile in order to better adapt to this rapidly evolving environment, and a key differentiator to success is attracting and developing the right skills.”

CT Women of Innovation To Be Honored This Week

The 12^th annual Women of Innovation® awards gala this week will recognize 52 women who are accomplished in science, technology, engineering, math and who are involved in their community, five college students and seven high school students who have already begun to demonstrate similar accomplishment. The annual awards event is “a time for like-minded, successful women to network and celebrate their accomplishments,” continuing a tradition led by the Connecticut Technology Council aimed at recognizing women in a range of innovative businesses, education and communities, and highlighting role models for young women looking ahead to career pursuits.

The categories include:

• Youth Innovation and Leadership
• Collegian Innovation and Leadership
• Community Innovation and Leadership
• Research Innovation and Leadership
• Academic Innovation and Leadership
• Entrepreneurial Innovation and Leadership
• Small Business Innovation and Leadership
• Large Business Innovation and Leadership

One woman in each of the eight categories will be selected as a top Woman of Innovation in her category, at the April 6 awards ceremony.

Among the nominees, in the Entrepreneurial Innovation and Leadership category, are Marcia Fournier, Founder & CEO of BioArray Therapeutics, Inc.; Gloria Kolb, CEO/Owner of Elidah, Inc.; Wendy Davis, CEO of GestVision, Inc.; Amy McCooe, Co-CEO of Level Up Village; Nicole Bucala, CEO of MIFCOR; Kelly Simpson-Angelini, CEO and Chief Strategic Officer of Simpson Heathcare Executives; Janine Darling, Founder & CEO of STASH America, LLC; and Anuja Ketan, Chief Technology Officer at Zillion Group Inc.

The women nominated in the Small Business Innovation and Leadership category include Melissa Casini – etouches, Norwalk, (Director of Account Management); Dina Dubey – Z-Medica, Wallingford,  (Executive VP, Corporate Development); Merrie London – Connecticut Innovations, Rocky Hill (Manager, SBIR and Federal Leveraging Programs); Jackie Mulhall – SMC Partners, Hartford (Director); Pam Perdue – Continuity Control, New Haven (Founder, EVP Regulatory Operations); and Kathleen Roberge – etouches, Norwalk (VP of Global Sales).

The full list of nominees includes individuals at some of Connecticut’s leading companies, including Sikorsky Aircraft, Frontier Communications, Hartford Hospital, Pfizer, and Pratt & Whitney. Academic institutions with Women of Innovation include the University of Connecticut, Wesleyan University, University of Bridgeport, and Yale University.

The keynote speaker for the April 6 awards program will be Congresswoman Elizabeth H. Esty, U.S. Representative for the 5th Congressional District of Connecticut. During the past 11 years, more than 500 women have been honored by Women of Innovation.

“Our state’s innovation sector recognizes the essential contributions its female engineers, scientists, programmers, physicians, mathematicians and teachers make in developing new products and services, advancing health technologies and serving as educators and role models for generations of women that follow,”said Connecticut Technology Council President and CEO Bruce Carlson. “Women of Innovation® allows us to put the spotlight on these exceptional innovators and leaders and connect them with a professional network of other women who strive for excellence.”

https://youtu.be/Uz1gQ96Yk1c

First Time Home Buyers: New Hartford, Westbrook, Coventry Most Attractive

In Connecticut, as elsewhere across the country, it is a home buyers’ market.  And that is especially prevalent in some of Connecticut’s smaller communities, and those in the central and northern parts of the state, according to an analysis by NerdWallet, a national finance website, which determined the top places for first-time homebuyers in Connecticut. The site identified the top communities for new home buyers, considering how much individuals would need to spend on a mortgage and examining the data on appreciation “to find the best locations, based on the health of the local housing market, the costs of housing, and the prosperity and safety in each community.”

“To be sure,” the website noted, “the state is not a magnet for first-time buyers based on affordability, but the places we identified stand out as being the most suitable for those looking for a foothold in the housing market.”

The top community was New Hartford, which was described as having “a population of just over 6,900, this small community was the 11th-safest among the 116 in the state we analyzed. Additionally, the select monthly ownership costs were the second-lowest among the top 10 cities, at $1,813; that’s $235 less than the median for all 116 communities.”

Runner-up was Westbrook, along the Connecticut shoreline.  Westbrook had “the second-most expensive home value among the top 10. But it also had the strongest home value growth rate among all 116 communities analyzed — a positive economic sign for homebuyers,” the website indicated.   “Although home values in many areas of the state fell between 2011 and 2014, they grew by 4.87% in Westbrook; that’s well above the median decline of 6.8% for all communities analyzed. Westbrook also had the lowest real estate tax rate among the top 10, at 1.15% of assessed value per year.

The top ten communities:

1. New Hartford
2. Westbrook
3. Coventry
4. Berlin
5. Colchester
6. Windsor Locks
7. Durham
8. Ellington
9. Marlborough
10. Windsor

Of Coventry, the third-ranked community, the website said: “Homeowners here see median monthly ownership costs of $1,883, which is $165 less than the median of all communities analyzed. Among the top 10 locations, it takes the third-shortest amount of time to save for a down payment in Coventry (19.86 years). With a crime rating of "safe," low poverty rates and home values nearly $20,000 less than the state median, Coventry could be an ideal location for first-time homebuyers if they can find employment within commuting distance.”

The fourth-ranked town, Berlin, was cited for its population growth, “the third-highest of all 116 communities analyzed, rising 3.34% between 2011 and 2014 — much higher than the median population growth of 0.5% for all places analyzed. The median home value here as of 2014 was $286,800, slightly higher than the median of all places analyzed.”

Colchester, with a median age of 39, was described as the youngest among the to 10, and Windsor Locks, home of Bradley International Airport, was highlighted for the affordability of its homes, “the least expensive” among the top communities.

Rounding out the top twenty were South Windsor, Canton, Haddam, Suffield, Glastonbury, Burlington, Tolland, East Hampton, Southington and Lebanon.  A total of 116 communities were ranked in the analysis, with Stamford, Ansonia, Waterbury, New Haven,  and Bridgeport at the bottom of the list.  

For their calculations, the website assumed a first-time homebuyer in Connecticut earns an annual income of $73,361, the 2014 state median for households headed by residents ages 25 to 44. They also assumed a personal savings rate of 4.8 percent, based on the U.S. 10-year average as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank. Assuming the homebuyers are starting with nothing in the bank, they then estimated how many years it would take to save for a 20 percent down payment

By following the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's recommendation that homeowners shouldn't allocate more than 28% of their gross monthly income to housing costs, NerdWallet analysts determined that a first-time homebuyer in Connecticut could afford to spend $1,712 a month on ownership costs — mortgage, taxes, utilities and insurance.

Greater Hartford Residents Prefer Focus on Vibrant Communities Over Recruiting Businesses

In a time of reduced resources and stark choices for policy makers, a survey of Greater Hartford residents suggests that investments aimed at creating vibrant communities, with the focus on local schools, transportation options, walkable, attractive physical environment is preferred to devoting greater resources to recruiting employers. In a survey for the Hartford Foundation for Public Giving as part of the Metro Hartford Progress Points effort, and conducted by Inform CT, residents of Hartford and Tolland County, by 57 percent to 43 percent, said that investing in communities was a better approach than recruiting businesses.

The findings reaffirm one of the key goals in the new three-year strategic plan of HFPG, launched earlier this year, developing vibrant communities.  The plan states that “All of our region’s residents should have the opportunity to live and contribute to strong, safe vibrant communities,” and calls for a “focus on people and places with the greatest need by engaging and supporting partners who promote meaningful civic engagement, safe affordable housing, quality health and mental health care and a rich diversity of cultural and other experiences to improve the quality of life.”

The data from the survey reflect a difference of opinion among older residents of the region.  Individuals over age 46 took the opposite view from younger residents, with a majority expressing a preference for spending skewed toward recruiting companies.   The reversal was dramatic, with two-thirds of those age 36-45 preferring investing in communities, by a margin of 67%-33%, and individuals age 46-55 expressing a preference for resources to be aimed at recruiting companies, with two-thirds holding the opposite view, 63%-38%.

Across all age groups, a majority of homeowners preferred that the emphasis be on vibrant communities, 52%-48%, and an even larger majority of respondents who are not homeowners, 64%-36%, shared the same view.

The preference for policy to be targeted more towards assuring vibrant communities than recruiting companies was consistent across a majority of respondents of various education levels and among white, black and Hispanic residents of the region, according to the survey.  A majority of survey respondents who are currently employed full-time, as well as those working part-time, and those unemployed all expressed a preference for investing in communities rather than recruiting companies.

The Greater Hartford survey results are not inconsistent with data gathered elsewhere.  A March 2014 national survey by the American Planning Association (APA) found that Millennials and Baby Boomers want cities to focus less on recruiting new companies and more on investing in new transportation options, walkable communities, and making the area as attractive as possible. The national survey found that 65 percent of all respondents and 74 percent of millennials believe investing in schools, transportation choices and walkable areas is a better way to grow the economy than investing in recruiting companies to move to the area, according to the APA.

A 2013 study in Michigan, posing similar questions, brought similar results.  In the statewide survey, 64 percent of Michigan citizens said they believed the most important thing state government can do for job creation is to “provide quality education, good roads and transportation, good public services like safety, water, fire, parks and libraries that create an environment in which people want to live, work and run a business.”  This contrasts with 29 percent who said the most important thing state government can do is to “cut taxes for individuals and businesses.”

Earlier this month, at the annual Municipal Collaboration Summit organized by the Hartford Business Journal, one of the session’s was devoted to an exploration of “Building Vibrant Communities,” with observations from representatives of Connecticut Main Street Center, the Partnership for Strong Communities and the Connecticut Economic Resource Center.

The Hartford Foundation for Public Giving serves 29 towns, hundreds of nonprofits and more than 750,000 residents in the Greater Hartford region.  As Greater Hartford’s community foundation, HFPG brings together members of the community to “share information, understand local problems and put resources behind effective solutions.”

Developed by a group of key regional stakeholders, Metro Hartford Progress Points is a periodic 'check-up' to build greater understanding about issues facing the Greater Hartford community. The second edition of Progress Points, released late last year, takes a deeper look at key issues impacting our communities and how they are connected, with a particular focus on access to better schools, better jobs and stronger neighborhoods.  Along with the Hartford Foundation, partners include the Hispanic Health Council, MetroHartford Alliance, United Way of Central and Northeastern Connecticut, Urban League of Greater Hartford, Capitol Workforce Partners, Capitol Region Council of Governments, the Center for Urban and Global Studies at Trinity College and the City of Hartford.

The survey was conducted for the Foundation during the 4^th quarter of 2015 by Inform CT.

Increased Municipal Burden, Disproportionate Impact on Low-Income Drivers Among Possible Effects of Highway Tolls, Report Finds

If Connecticut opts to introduce a system of tolls on the state’s roads to help fund a significant expansion of transportation infrastructure projects in the years ahead, the toll system instituted could run the risk of causing an increased use of local roadways that “could shift the burden of maintenance and congestion to municipalities,” and lower income residents in the state could be faced with “a higher burden relative to their incomes than wealthier Connecticut residents.” Those warnings to policy makers are included in an Issue Brief  by Inform CT that reviews the various tolling options and respective challenges posed.  Connecticut eliminated tolls more than 30 years ago in the aftermath of a horrific accident at the Stratford toll plaza, and state leaders have been in a “perpetual debate about whether to reinstate them ever since,” the paper points out.

With overhauling the state’s transportation system is a leading element in Governor Malloy’s agenda to boost the state’s economy, renewed attention is being paid to methods of generating sufficient revenue to support those initiatives, and to issues raised in the 2015 policy brief.  Spurred by advances in technology, the possibility of imposing a system of electronic tolls, such as those in use in other states, are among the considerations, with border tolling, distance tolling and congestion pricing among the options.

The issue brief indicated that a disadvantage of a distance toll system on all limited access highways in Connecticut would be that it “could create an incentive for people to use alternative roadways. The increased use of these roadways could shift the burden of maintenance and congestion to municipalities.” The advantage would be that distance tolls “could help to more efficiently allocate the cost of these roadways to drivers who use them the most.”

In analyzing the potential impact of tolls placed at Connecticut’s borders, the policy paper notes that while such an approach would “help to ensure that out-of-state residents driving through Connecticut pay for their use of Connecticut’s roadways,” border tolls “place a disproportionate burden on residents of Connecticut who commute out-of-state to work. This burden is further amplified if we believe that, on average, these out-of-state commuters use a smaller share of the roadways than their in-state commuting counterparts.”

Congestion pricing, which provides for higher toll charges at peak traffic times, “helps to limit traffic on major roadways and create an incentive for people to use more environmentally friendly forms of public transportation,” the policy paper indicates.  However, a congestion pricing system “could polarize roadway use by displacing low income commuters during peak driving hours. Congestion pricing could also create displacement effects whereby the increased use of local roadways could shift the burden of maintenance and congestion to municipalities.”

The report suggests that “congestion pricing and distance tolls could become more affordable for low income residents if electronic payment systems were implemented that allow for income-based rate reductions.”

Earlier this year, a study panel recommended installing tolls and raising taxes in order to pay for Malloy's 30-year, $100 billion transportation program.  Legislators have said that any decision on the imposition of tolls is at least a year away, as attention focuses during the current session on establishing a method to assure that money allocated to transportation is not redirected to other areas of government.

The issue brief also stress that “a key consideration when trying to outweigh the benefits and costs of implementing tolling in Connecticut is how the revenue from the tax will be redistributed to the residents of the state.” It goes on to highlight that “as the bill stands, the monies raised would go into the Special Transportation Fund but allocation of the monies from there is not specified. The allocation of these funds is an important discussion that needs to take place before the impact of the legislation can be considered in earnest.”

InformCT is a public-private partnership that currently includes staff from the Connecticut Economic Resource Center and the Connecticut Data Collaborative. The mission of InformCT is to provide independent, non-partisan research, analysis, and public outreach focused on issues in Connecticut, and to act as the convener for fact-based dialogue and action.

Unemployment Drops in Waterbury, Norwich/New London Lead CT; Unemployment Lowest in Danbury

The unemployment rate in greater Waterbury and the Norwich-New London saw a larger decrease during the past year than Connecticut’s other large metropolitan areas, and the state’s lowest unemployment rate can be found in Danbury, according to new data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Danbury was the only one of the state’s six largest metro region to crack the top 200 for lowest unemployment rate, earning a spot at number 168. The year-over-year unemployment data shows that unemployment rates were lower in January 2016 than a year earlier in 333 of 387 metropolitan areas in the U.S., higher in 43 areas, and unchanged in 11 areas. In Connecticut, the six major metropolitan areas all saw a decline in the unemployment rate.

Nationwide, the unemployment rate dropped eight-tenths of a point, from 6.1 percent in January 2015 to 5.3 percent in January 2016.  Only one Connecticut region – Danbury – had a lower unemployment rate, at 5.1 percent.  Generally in Connecticcut, the larger the unemployment rate in January 2015, the larger the drop over the following year.

The one percent drop in unemployment in Waterbury and Norwich-New London-Westerly ranked each region tied for 124^th for the largest drop in the nation.  Also reaching the top 200 for the largest reduction in unemployment was the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford area, ranking 197^th with a drop of 0.7 percent, from 6.7 percent to 6.0 percent.

Even with the drop in unemployment, Waterbury’s jobless rate is the highest among the state’s major urban areas, at 7.4 percent. 

In this year’s rankings, Waterbury was number 342 with an unemployment rate of 7.4 percent. Norwich-New London-Westerly was at number 295 with an unemployment rate of 6.4 percent.  New Haven and Hartford-West Hartford-West Hartford were tied at number 263 with an unemployment rate of 6.0 percent, and Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk at number 235 with an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent, down from 6.3 percent a year ago.

Ames, Iowa, and Boulder, Colo., had the lowest unemployment rates in January, 2.5 percent each. El Centro, Calif., had the highest unemployment rate, 19.2 percent. A total of 187 areas had January jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 5.3 percent, 184 areas had rates above it, and 16 areas had rates equal to that of the nation.

Raising Revenue Getting Tougher for Towns, Cities in Connecticut; Property Tax Drives Disparities

The Connecticut Data Collaborative has launched a series of reports that will examine the fiscal situation of Connecticut’s 169 municipalities making the data compiled in several recent statewide initiatives that examined fiscal challenges facing the state and its towns more readily accessible to the public. The goal is to “highlight the major findings from these initiatives and reports; expand on the research that was done; present it through a new medium; and inform a broader audience on the work being done in the state.”

The first data story, published this month, highlights the findings from a report to the General Assembly’s Program Review and Investigations Committee prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s New England Public Policy Center (NEPPC), “Measuring Municipal Fiscal Disparities in Connecticut.”

The conclusion: the capacity to raise revenue from property taxes is the main driver of fiscal disparities in Connecticut.

• 78 of 169 towns have a deficit, with revenue capacity below the cost of providing services. These 78 towns represent almost 60 percent of state’s population.
• 91 of 169 towns have sufficient capacity to raise revenue capacity to cover the cost of services.
• Municipal cost differences exist but are not as dramatic as the differences in the ability to raise revenue
• Current state non-school grants made to towns have a limited effect in reducing non-school fiscal disparities in Connecticut.
• Five cost factors were identified as driving non-school municipal costs: unemployment, population density, private sector wages, town road maintenance, and jobs per capita.
• Statistical analysis shows that the following factors do not impact costs: poverty, population, the share of foreign-born population, and the share of older rental housing units

The website points out that “a municipal gap exists when the costs are higher than the revenue raising capacity,” and provides an interactive town-by-town listing of the “gaps.”  The highlighted findings:

• The largest gaps are in Hartford (-$1,330), Bridgeport (-$1,168), New Haven (-$1,101), New Britain (-$1,056) and New London (-$896). The largest surpluses are in Westport, New Canaan, Darien, and Greenwich.  The data is FY 2007-2011, averaged.
• 78 towns in the state have a deficit - the capacity is below the cost of providing services. These towns cover almost 60 percent of state’s population.
• 91 towns have sufficient capacity to raise revenue greater than the cost of services. These towns cover 40 percent of the state’s population, primarily in Fairfield County, Litchfield and the shoreline.

Since property taxes are the primary way that municipalities raise revenue, the website examined the trends in the Equalized Net Grand List (ENGL) since 2011.  Overall, property tax revenue has been on the decline, the data indicated. An interactive table on the site shows - by town- the average annual growth rate (or decline) in the grand list from 2011 to 2014, and also shows the Municipal Gap calculated by the report. In total, ENGL has declined for 145 of the 169 towns since 2011 – “thus the revenue raising capacity for towns has only become more difficult.”

CT Residents Believe Economy, Business Conditions Have Improved, But Uncertain About Future

Connecticut residents are somewhat more upbeat about the state of the state’s economy, but less than convinced that good economic news will keep coming, according to the results of the Connecticut Consumer Confidence Survey for the fourth quarter of 2015, released this week.  The quarterly survey,  by InformCT, a public-private partnership that provides independent, non-partisan research, analysis, and public outreach to help create fact-based dialogue and action in Connecticut, is designed to generate an ongoing measure of consumer confidence in the Connecticut economy. When asked to think about overall business conditions in Connecticut versus 6 months ago, respondents – for the first time in three quarters – said conditions are better now than 6 months ago.  The margin was narrow - with 27 percent saying “better” and 25 percent saying “worse”, but that’s a reversal from the past two quarters, when more people were of the view that business conditions has worsened (22%-24% and 24%-28% in the two previous quarters).

The percentage of respondents who feel that the Connecticut economy is improving increased from 23 percent in the 3^rd quarter to 27 percent in the most recent survey, and the percentage expressing concern that their job, or their spouses’ job, is in jeopardy, has declined in each of the four quarterly surveys, from 38 percent in the first quarter of 2015, to 36 percent, 35 percent and now 33 percent.

Administered for InformCT by the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. and Smith & Company, the analysis is based on the responses of residents across Connecticut and addresses key economic issues.  The most recent consumer confidence survey also saw an uptick in key indicators, as the percentage who believe:

• there are “plenty of jobs for anyone who wants to work (as compared with 6 months ago)” increased from 10 percent to 13 percent
• the employment situation will be better still in 6 months increased from 15 percent in the 3^rd quarter to 17 percent in the 4^th quarter
• their personal financial situation is better now than 6 months ago increased from 63 percent in the third quarter to 65 percent in the 4^th quarter survey.

Even though Connecticut residents feel conditions are improved, they are increasingly divided when asked if they expect that will continue.

When asked to look ahead six months, respondents have consistently believed business conditions will improve, but by a narrowing margin in each of the past four quarters.  In the beginning of the year, 30 percent thought business conditions would improve, as compared with 19 percent who thought conditions would worsen – an 11 point differential.  In the following three quarters, that differential narrowed to 9 points, then 5, and now 4.

There were other positive outcomes in the final quarterly survey of 2015, as the percentage who anticipate:

• making a major consumer expenditure for furniture or some other product in the next 6 months jumped from 26 percent to 34 percent, reversing a slide from 36 percent in the year’s first quarterly survey.
• buying a new car also increased, from 22 percent in Q3 to 25 percent in Q4, the highest percentage of any of the quarterly surveys on that question.
• taking a vacation outside Connecticut in the next 6 months also rebounded, from 51 percent to 56 percent, reversing a diminishing percentage in each of the past two quarters.

There remain some troubling signs amidst the generally upbeat news.

The percentage who agree that Connecticut is a good place to live and raise a family and dropped slightly, and is under 50 percent for the first time in the quarterly surveys, at 47 percent.   The percentage of respondents who say they are likely to move out of the state in the next five years has increased in three consecutive quarters, from 32 percent to 34 percent to 37 percent, but remains lower than in the first quarterly survey, when it stood at 39 percent.

InformCT is a public-private partnership that currently includes staff from the Connecticut Economic Resource Center and the Connecticut Data Collaborative.  More information about subscribing can be found at informct.org.  Based in Rocky Hill, the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. is a nonprofit corporation and public-private partnership that provides economic development services consistent with state strategies, leveraging Connecticut’s unique advantages as a premier business location.  Smith & Company LLC, is a Shelton, Connecticut-based market research firm.